Eleven wagonloads of nuclear waste are barrelling down the tracks from France to Germany this weekend, and the German anti-nuclear movement is stronger than ever before. What will probably be the biggest police turnout in German postwar history could escalate – and damage, if not derail, the anti-nuclear cause.

Special chartered trains, hundreds of buses carrying thousands and thousands of demonstrators: the Wendland [region in northeastern Lower Saxony] is in for a weekend of protest unparalleled since the 1980s. And those in the federal government who were hoping the anti-nuclear movement had been lulled to sleep over the past ten years by the shortened reactor lifespans and the moratorium on the Gorleben salt dome [site of a highly controversial government-planned future repository that is geologically unfit for radioactive waste storage] are in for a rude awakening. The movement hasn’t been going this strong in a long time, and it now cuts right across the board through all walks of life. So it isn’t just the usual obstructionists in wool socks and Birkenstocks who are taking to the streets in Gorleben.

Therein lies the power of this resistance. The protest has reached mainstream Germany: anti-nuke rallies are no longer just about combatting a risky technology, but about championing an ecologically sound system of generating electricity. In other words, they have become patriotic and ultimately extremely middle-class events. The makes the movement dangerous, even for the Christian Democrats: in fact, there are more than a few critics of atomic energy among their ranks, too. Others are turning to the Greens and helping them to record approval ratings.

But for that very reason, this will be a make-or-break weekend for the anti-nuclear movement. In the recent past, the movement has generally succeeded in preventing any escalation. After all, advocating clean energy sorted ill with violence. And Wendland countryfolk have about as much in common with anarchists as a castor [cask for storage and transport of radioactive material] does with green energy.

If the protest is peaceful, there is room for debate

But emotions have been unusually inflamed this year – by the extension of reactor lifespans, alleged secret deals with energy utilities and the reckless resumption of underground exploration in Gorleben. Some 30,000 demonstrators could be facing off against 16,000 police. A couple of groups have already announced plans to obstruct the tracks, the police are putting water cannons in position. All of that should be good for some nasty images from Wendland on Saturday.

Which can only harm the cause. The debate won’t take a new turn just because a handful of activists or some riot police or all of them together should wreak some serious havoc up in Wendland. However, it may well drive a perfectly legitimate protest into a corner in which it does not belong. Most of the protesters simply object to the present coalition’s energy policy and its decision to set a precedent in Wendland.

If the protest remains peaceful, there will still be room for rational debate. And there are ample grounds for debate, particularly in Gorleben, where the federal government is currently risking billions on a project which, given its case history, hardly stands any chance of materialising. Now if that isn’t reason enough for civil protest I don’t know what is.

Translated from the German by Eric Rosencrantz