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  • Austerity

    Bucharest’s blues

    07 February 2012

    Romania has become the latest EU country to see its government collapse in the face of planned austerity measures. Isn't it time to think again, asks Jason Walsh.

    Following Greece and Italy, both of which have seen governments tumble and be replaced by "technocrat" administrations, Romanian prime minister Emil Boc has quit, saying the move would "defuse political and social tension".

    Ireland, Spain and Portugal also saw changes of government, albeit in rather less dramatic circumstances. 

    In all cases, from Athens to Athlone, one thing remains constant: austerity.

    Indeed, Mr. Boc's defence of his government's tax hikes and salary and service cuts could have come from the lips of any of the leaders of the aforementioned countries, either the outgoing bad pennies or their freshly minted replacements.

    "I know that I made difficult decisions, but the fruits have begun to appear," said Mr. Boc. "In times of crisis, the government is not in a popularity contest, but is saving the country."

    Mr. Boc's words are worth considering for a moment. It is self-evidently true that politics is a popularity contest. That's what it's supposed to be, and anyone who says otherwise is skirting close to anti-democratic sentiments. On the other hand, it is also true that elected politicians must sometimes lead public opinion, rather than merely reflect it. If difficult decisions are required, then they must be taken.

    But, really, these are just truisms – and the facts in the case of the various European austerity programmes bear consideration, too.

    Without even delving into the details of just why debts are seen as un-negotiable, there is also the small matter that current policies are unable to lift countries out of stagnation. By raising taxes and cutting salaries and jobs (known as "internal devaluation") the hope is to balance budgets, and, in the longer term, gear economies for export. Export need not mean the sale of material goods across borders, and in fact it increasingly means anything but. It may be the hope of growing foreign tourism, it may be the hope of attracting foreign-oriented service jobs such as international call centres, but no matter what is planned, the idea is to draw capital into the economy from abroad.

    Which is fine. Except for a few small matters.

    First of all, if everyone is attempting to attract massive amounts of foreign investment it rapidly becomes a race to the bottom. Secondly, if everyone is "exporting", who precisely is going to pay to import goods and services?

    This is the fatal flaw of austerity: underconsumption, which is well understood on a domestic level, but also applies across the EU.

    Plenty of politicians and economists talk about national budgets as being akin to a household budget. This analogy is fine as far as it goes. Who wants to run a deficit and pay vast amounts of interest on loans, after all? But household budgets are not economies. A household is not its own biggest consumer. Depressing spending power results in a drop in consumption which, in turn, leads to slumps in production, thus creating a vicious cycle where economies go into longterm slumps. 

    Falling domestic consumer demand is far from being the only problem. During times of major economic uncertainty  –  such as now, for instance – this also works on an international scale, with countries engaged in widespread belt-tightening exercises unable to import foreign goods and services. In addition, businesses facing falling sales or massive debt repayments naturally cut down on capital spending, while outside investment is deterred from the risky business of productive activity, going instead into safer, or simply decadent, markets. In an era – pre-bust – already marked by a decline in longterm capital investment in productive activity, which resulted in an over-relaiance on consumer spending, this risks the creation of markets awash with goods and services no-one can afford.

    As real living standards fall across groups of countries, such as say, oh, the European Union, those that rely significantly on external demand such as Germany may soon find that exporting austerity programmes mean they are importing poverty. 

    Image by Dracula&stuff. CC licenced. 

  • Slump pact

    Europe’s lurch backward

    31 January 2012

    Borne of failure and fear, the EU moves toward political union not in strength, but in weakness. The latest proposed treaty for a "fiscal compact" continues this inglorious tradition, says Jason Walsh

    And so, 25 European countries will now, we are told, sign a pact, the objective of which is to reinforce the euro by toughening and regularising budget rules. Sold as a step forward, this move in fact underscores just how politically incoherent Europe has become.

    At once high-minded and a product of failure, the European Union had its genesis in the maelstrom of the Second World War. Devised as a means of politically and economically aligning the power blocs of France and Germany in the –  quite correct –  belief that they would never again go to war with one-another, plunging the rest of the continent into hell with them, if they shared a common interest. 

    European Coal and Steel Community founding father Jean Monnet was remarkably clear about his designs for Europe: political union. Those who followed, however, have been less open.

    In fact, the seeds of European Union disregard for the masses we see being played out today are a direct result of the EU's gradualist approach. Instead of taking the bull by the horns and straightforwardly arguing for political union, successive generations of EU leaders have balked at the, admittedly Sisyphean, task of uniting European nations and instead trod a piecemeal path, fiddling here, meddling there and all the while refusing to admit that the ultimate logic of going beyond a mere trade bloc is political union. 

    And so, Europe lurches forward, if you can call it that, not as a united social entity or political demos, but driven by the fear and failure of the various national political elites. The latest proposed treaty, or "fiscal compact" if you prefer, ties 25 supposedly sovereign EU nations together under German-led anti-growth economic policy in the name of safeguarding the future of euro and with it, in the darkest and most apocalyptic visions, that of the entire EU.

    To some small degree it has already succeeded: markets have rallied in response to the announcement. But in the longer term this plan will not work.

    German-inspired "fiscal discipline" is not the only way to run an economy, nor is it the necessarily the right way to run one. For instance, Greece's spending cuts have worsened the country's debt crisis, not alleviated it.

    There is, and has been, much that is good in European co-operation, even integration, but this madness must stop. Greece is being immiserated, crushed underfoot by Franco-German diktat that cares only about the country's (entirely imaginary) ability to repay its debts. And so, more money will be thrown at Greece, though it will slide through the country without so much as touching the ground, making its way to Greece's creditors while unemployment and poverty will continue to grow.

    Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain are all also getting a raw deal, though none quite as egregious as that foisted in Greece, and now the rest of the EU, with the exception of the United Kingdom and Czech Republic, have signed this mutual suicide pact that will do nothing but depress consumer demand and, with it, the wider economy. 

    No country being forced to implement swingeing cuts will ever be able to emulate Germany's enviable export-driven economy even if they desired to do so –  and, in truth, few seem so inclined anyway. Germany too will suffer, with the European market for its goods going into decline. Next to the absence of workable industrial policy and the ability to make strategic investment in industry, talk of stimulating the small and medium enterprise and tackling youth unemployment melts into so much blather. What we will get is a longterm slump.

    When the warnings start about the growth of far-right and populist movements, and they will surely come soon, the European elites will cast around looking for scapegoats before finding one in the supposedly backward, nationalist and selfish European publics. But they will have no-one to blame but themselves.

    Image by Chesi. CC licenced. 

  • Finance

    Taxing times for Sarkozy

    30 January 2012

    France's planned introduction of a "Tobin tax" has broken a practical taboo, but will it help or hamper economic growth, asks Jason Walsh.

    Speaking on television on Sunday night, French president Nicolas Sarkozy announced plans to introduce a tax on financial transactions.

    The 0.1 per cent levy, often referred to as a Robin Hood tax or Tobin tax after economist James Tobin, will be introduced in August as part of a package of measures, including hikes in VAT, the president says will promote economic growth and job creation. 

    It would be easy to dismiss Mr Sarkozy's move as nothing more than naked electioneering. Indeed there is much to commend such a view, but the move is more than just smoke and mirrors, even if it is gesture politics.

    The idea of a tax on financial transactions is simple: supposedly it will take from the rich to give to the poor, hence the cute Robin Hood monicker. 

    Mr Sarkozy says the implementation of the tax, first proposed by Mr Tobin in 1972, will "create a shockwave and set an example" to other EU nations. It may well do.

    Nevertheless, the French president is not quite the maverick trailblazer he claims to be. German chancellor Angela Merkel has previously expressed support for the idea, as have Joseph Stiglitz, noted economist and adviser to former US president Bill Clinton, former British prime minister Gordon Brown and EU commissioner Michel Barnier, to name but four. In fact, it is hard to find any senior political figure who is actually against a tax on financial transactions. True, Britain's prime minister David Cameron is strongly against imposing one, but the main complaint political leaders make about Tobin taxes are that they are fine in principle but cannot be imposed unilaterally without driving the financial services industry to leave the country en masse

    Clearly this is bunk and any blood and thunder proclamations of impending doom from bankers should be treated with some scepticism. That doesn't mean a Tobin tax is necessarily a good idea, though. 

    The idea isn't really to generate revenue from the tax, so much as to curb financial transactions by dissuading speculators from making short term investments (in the original conception Tobin taxes were aimed particularly in the foreign exchange market, a fact which goes some way toward explaining British reluctance: much of the City of London's business is actually transacted in euros). This is all predicated on a view of the world economy as a giant casino in which fortunes, often borrowed, are won and lost in a zero sum game. This may be a popular view today, but it obscures as much as it illuminates.  

    We are all now familiar with the concept of the real economy and how it has become disconnected from the high-flying world of finance, but we are still paying little more than lip service to the idea that investment exists to provide funding to the real economy. 

    Real growth requires not a curbing of financial services, but a recouping of investment to industry, something the tax is neither capable of doing, nor was it designed to do.

    For those who say the tax is only fair given the various bailouts and nationalisations of banks –  effectively the socialisation of private debt – the fact remains that bailing out bankrupt banks was a political choice and a Tobin tax will do nothing to address this or the consequent, also political, austerity programme being pushed across Europe. Mr Sarkozy claims the money will be used for social protection, but quite why anyone in Europe, where raised taxes are being used to pay down debt, believes the revenue from this tax will actually be used to help the poor has not been sufficiently explained. Far from being a move toward economic fairness, Mr Sarkozy's move is very much in line with the austerity agenda.

    Image by 'Images of Money'. CC Licenced.

  • Industry and the internet

    Immaterial world

    27 January 2012

    Kodak's filing for bankruptcy protection should give us pause for thought when it comes to our brave, new online world, says Jason Walsh.

    Peering into the metaphorical crystal ball for 2012 – in reality looking back over the trends of the last few years – one striking phenomenon is the increasingly rapid rate at which all we considered solid has not so much melted into air, as been shredded into tiny pieces by the behemoth that is the internet.

    Speaking recently to Roy Greenslade, former Daily Mirror editor and now professor of journalism, for a forthcoming news story, I was struck by his pessimism. Greenslade says newspapers' business models are finished, wrought low by an internet culture that has rendered them a historical curiosity. 

    Clearly I am not happy about this. True, I am not a disinterested observer of the decline of the press, but there is more going on here than newspapers failing to make a profit on the web. The internet, or rather how we use the internet, has blown a hole in more than mere newspapers. 

    Eastman Kodak, the company that brought photography to the masses, filed for bankruptcy protection on January 19, finding its lunch had been thoroughly eaten by the digital photography it had invented and consequent online photo sharing that sees fewer photographs printed. The loss of jobs is certainy lamentable, but the issue at stake is not the profitability of any one particular business. Bookshops, the music industry, film… almost all forms of cultural endeavour are under enormous pressure from people who genuinely seem to think they should be able to consume everything they want at no cost, something that represents a distinctive break from the industrial age.

    Speaking for myself, conservatism, even of a small-c variety, does not come easily. Progress – social, economic and, eventually, industrial – has been the watchword of human development for as long as we have existed. That the speed of technological development has increased to a blistering pace is no reason to reject it.  

    Similarly, traditions need not be thoughtlessly defended simply because they exist. Tradition builds over time for a reason and its overthrow can be a refreshing and vital experience. And yet, it is difficult to escape the feeling that our brave new world is more random destruction than creative destruction.

    I cannot find it in myself to mount an argument for preserving things as they are simply because I happen to approve of some or other aspect of them, but there is nonetheless a case to be made for restating the essential reasons why we do things in the first place. It is lamentable that our public sphere is so shrunken that incredibly vague collective activity, such as watching the same television programmes or buying books in a shop, count as participation in society, but we will miss these things when they are gone.

    Those who argue that the music industry, bookshops, newspapers and the rest have outlived their usefulness may have a point, but it should not be forgotten that these people are making an ideological argument. That the ideology is inchoate and often heavily disguised does not mean that it is not present. Underlying it all is a disregard for production and, ultimately, labour. This need not be so.  

    The recent revelation that production of Apple's iPhone could be undertaken in the United States for a mere $65 more in costs hints at what has gone wrong. It is an item of faith that Western countries cannot compete with China in manufacturing and that the decline of industrial production is a somehow naturally occurring social and economic phenomenon. In truth, we didn't need the example of Apple to know this is untrue: Germany already gave the lie to that particular ahistorical assertion.

    But, despite an economic catastrophe intrinsically linked to the fetishisation of immaterial financial services, we remain under the spell of the idea of a "post-industrial society". Since the events of 2008 plenty of people have belatedly popped-up to tell us that, correctly as it happens, that an economy cannot function solely on the basis of financial services, but the internet ideology that sees goods, be they cultural, such as music or news, or material, like iPhones, merely as preexisting items to which we "add value" remains the dominant idea in our culture. This is why so many of us think we can have it all for free: we have no real understanding of just how things are made in the first place.

    We get the innovation we deserve. Technology is as much reliant on social forces as it is a driver of them. Make no mistake: that we get Twitter and Facebook, but not missions to Mars is a matter of choice. There were a mere fifty-four years between the first powered human flight and the launch of Sputnik, but it seems that in the network age our horizons have significantly lowered.

    Image: Curtiss SB2C "Helldiver" production line in 1943. Via Ryan Crierie. CC licenced. 

  • Downgrades

    Solvency, not lack of liquidity, is driving Europe down

    16 January 2012

    The S&P downgrade merely reflects European leaders' failure to regain solvency, says Constantin Gurdgiev.

    "In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could," as Rudiger Dornbusch remarked some years ago.

    Friday the 13th – the day Standard and Poor's (S&P) downgraded nine euro area sovereign bond ratings, stripping Austria and France off their AAA status, cutting Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus’ rating by two notches, Malta, Slovakia and Slovenia by one notch each and placing 14 eurozone countries on negative watch for future downgrades. Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are now also facing the potential loss of their AAA ratings. Greece is now in the imminent default territory and Italy is rated in the same risk group as Kazakhstan – BBB+.

    Perhaps more importantly, the announcement came as no surprise. Ratings agencies like S&P are lagging market indicators, simply belatedly confirming what we all already know. The immediate significance of the Friday move, therefore, is its impact on the mandate-bound investors – pension funds, insurance funds and a small number of investment funds – which respond directly to changes in risk ratings and rankings. This will see some substantial dumping of the bonds by those investors, directly prevented from holding riskier assets. The medium-term impact will be in reduced liquidity in markets for the sovereign bonds most impacted by the ratings downgrades and possible hikes in margins on these bonds. This will further undermine their liquidity and mount new losses on the balance sheets of those institutions holding them. In the longer-term, the impact of Friday’s announcement will be much more dramatic, as the political embarrassment that follows the downgrades is likely to force political responses – something that Europe has already shown it is not very good at.

    Nevertheless, the announcement still managed to catch European leaders off-guard. But forget ratings and look at the actual market-expected probabilities of sovereign default. In Q4 2011, thirteen out of twenty highest risk countries, as measured by the implied probability of sovereign default, were members of the EU27, of which seven were members of the euro area. France’s Credit Default Swaps were trading at mid-point levels consistent with those of Morocco and Tunisia. Thirteen EU27 countries had Credit Default Swaps rates consistent with the implied probability of sovereign default in excess of 20 percent. A week ago, AAA-rated Austria sported a credit default swap rate similar to BBB-rated Philippines and Thailand. The only euro area country that managed to make it into the top 5 performers worldwide in terms of implied probability of default on its sovereign debt was Finland, with the closest euro area comparative being Germany in world’s number 10 position. Finland, (number 5), Germany (number 10) and the Netherlands (number 15) are the only three euro economies in the top 20 performing states in the CDS league table published by CMA.

     All of this amounts to a very public international embarrassment for the euro area’s leaders, for the ECB and the entire EU. An embarrassment that is wholly of the EU’s own making. These latest ratings and the market perceptions of euro area risks that underlie them are the outcomes of the combination of policy failures that stand at the heart of the European ‘project’. They are caused by sustained deterioration of the macroeconomic fundamentals. Anemic growth, stagnant conservatism, inability to change, incapacity to reward entrepreneurship and governance structures that are non-transparent and politicised – all describe Europe of today. All of these are the underwriters of the European failure to recognise and resolve the ongoing crisis.

    In recent years (not months), Europe collectively has undertaken policies designed to supply morphine to the dying economies of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Belgium, while at the same time collectively destroying the only viable economy in Europe’s ‘periphery’ – Ireland. Even today, in the wake of a tsunami of evidence to the contrary, European leaders continue to insist on pretending the EU’s problem is a crisis of liquidity. But it’s not. It’s a crisis of solvency.

    Perhaps the most telling response to the S&P announcements has come so far not from the markets – which had already factored in likely downgrades – but Europe’s leaders. Mr Sarkozy’s emotional outburst in the wake of the French downgrade and the knee-jerk reaction of Europe’s most serial crisis denier, commissioner Olli Rehn, were not the signs of leadership confidence and ability, but the acts akin to a junior school child smashing his calculator for giving him an answer different to the one he wanted. 

    Amidst this, can anyone be really surprised that the more acute issues of the week – collapse of Greek talks on private sector involvement in bond restructuring, the abysmal showing of the peripheral economies – save Ireland – in the latest trade balance figures and the disastrous news on unemployment from Spain – have been sidelined with a show of fake indignation at the S&P downgrade? Not really. As Rome burns, Rome goes on complaining about the lack of wine and circuses.

    Image by Fernando D. Ramirez. CC licenced. 

  • Austerity

    Careful what you plan for

    13 January 2012

    The austerity orthodoxy is working all too well when it comes to driving down living standards, says Simon McGarr, and European leaders need to stop inducing economic depression.

    Remember when Ireland nearly went bust because we couldn’t afford to pay the interest on the loans we were being offered? You remember it happened because the entities who loan money are run by, basically, sociopathic lemmings and they suddenly realised that we’d promised to cough up enough money to pay off the loans of any banks that went bust. (Well, the then government had promised it on our behalf, but apparently it’s one of those one-way decisions you can’t change once you’ve done it, like drunkenly texting your boss what you think of them in the small hours.)

    Anyway, these sociopath lemmings all realised that if that bank collapse actually happened (and they collectively suddenly thought that it would) Ireland wouldn’t actually be good for the cash. That meant that the country would go officially bust – or "default" – not paying its debts as they fall due. All of which takes us to the 2010 bailout, which was basically just us turning to the last set of people who’d give us money and dropping to our knees, wailing “Please save us!”

    Ironically, they had to save us, because their banks were the ones who’d loaned our banks all the money they couldn’t pay back: if we sank, their banks would sink with us. It is possible that, if we had a better set of representatives, we might have made something of that fact, but it’s hard to negotiate from a position of strength when your negotiating team metaphorically can’t see for weeping and periodically break off to scream at invisible enemies. And are on their knees.

    Still, here we are now. But where is this exactly? Well, we’re in a state which is pursuing a policy of internal devaluation. Yes, you know what that is. You told me you did. I believe you. But you might meet someone who hasn’t entirely got their heads around it yet. What harm if we just run through the basics we’ll be effortlessly conveying in a superior tone to our less informed fellow-citizen?

    Let’s start with a definition of internal devaluation:

    Internal Devaluation – where a country seeks to regain competitiveness through lowering wage costs and increasing productivity and not reducing value of exchange rate. (From economicshelp.org)

    Normally, you devalue by decreeing suddenly that your currency is now worth less against all other currencies. Outsiders can suddenly afford more of the stuff you sell, so you get a bit of a boost.

    But Ireland can’t decree that the euro is now worth less. So, the alternative is to force everyone in the country to just charge less – for everything: lower wages, less fees, lower prices – the works.

    The thing is, our government can’t actually decree that the private companies of Ireland make their stuff cheaper. And they can’t make private workers agree to be paid less.

    So, they’ve been doing what they can to depress what they can reach: whipping up media attacks on the people whose incomes they do control – public workers, people subsisting on social welfare and so on – and then cutting the money going to them.

    Of course, this makes these people’s lives very difficult, (Irish suicides are up 13 percent since the crisis began, according to the respected medical journal the Lancet) but the government hoped-for result is to reduce domestic demand enough that price and wage deflation will be forced into the private sector.

    Regrettably, deflation is seen as the worst possible thing that can happen to a country. Even more regrettably, the experience of Latvia suggests that trying to devalue your own economy through an induced depression is both socially devastating and economically wrongheaded. The Centre for Economic and Policy Research reported that despite a fall in national production in excess of the US Great Depression of the 1930s, Latvia had only managed to achieve a fall in its effective exchange rate of 5.8 percent from peak. That was with 22 percent unemployment. Ireland has only managed to achieve 14 percent unemployment so far.

    Shotgun-wedded to this austerity dream, the new government has brought in a new cycle of measures to try to force private sector labour costs down. They even introduced an ‘internship’ scheme where social welfare recipients are supplied for free to employers for 6 months at a time for training in skills such as stacking shelves in Tescos. JobBridge, as it is called, is, in effect if not by design, a method of forcing wages in the private sector down by introducing an alternative subsidised workforce into the labour market.

    The orthodoxy of austerity states that Latvia and Ireland will reap the benefits of a collapsing economy and society. And, since the now infamous summit of the damned, all the lucky citizens of Europe can look forward to joining us. Historically, removing political choices by attempting to bake one set of orthodoxies into political structures has not resulted in the perpetual success of those orthodoxies. Instead people have had a tendency to decide they’ll just abandon the compromised structures.

    European leaders should worry about the consequences of failure. But they should fear the consequences of their success.

  • Debate

    EU — a laboratory of democracy?

    14 December 2011

    Despite the depth of the crisis, Ireland remains positively disposed to the European Union. Rather than just becoming a focus for anti-EU sentiment, its culture of referendums means that the electorate is keenly aware of issues affecting the union, says Gerard Cunningham.

    As markets and commentators digest the latest imperfect solution to emerge from an EU get-together, most leaders are content to wait for committees of civil servants to worry about the details. They can then present the deal to their parliaments for national approval.

    But Irish prime minister Enda Kelly faces an additional hurdle. His electorate expects a referendum, and while Kenny had promised one if his attorney general says it is necessary, the political need for a plebiscite may outweigh any legal requirements.

    Ever since 1987's Crotty decision, when historian Richard Crotty went to the Supreme Court, the Irish government has been obliged to refer to the people any treaty which dilutes Irish sovereignty. Since then, they have voted on five EU treaties, in some cases more than once.

    In a union plagued by charges of democratic deficit and remoteness from its peoples, the Irish cherish the opportunity to hold Brussels to account, even if only for a moment. A quick straw poll by this author indicates that even among confirmed Yes voters, a majority believe that the issue should be put before the voters.

    And despite rising anti-EU sentiment (much of it inspired by the costs of the IMF/EU bailout) the Irish remain more favourably disposed than most to the union. A Spring 2011 Eurobarometer survey found 54 percent of the Irish had a positive image of the union, behind only Romania and Bulgaria, and well ahead of the EU average of 44 percent.

    Because of their habitual treaty-inspired referendum votes, the Irish are also better informed about the EU than most (or so they tell themselves anyway). But whatever the truth behind that perception, they do at least debate the future of the union on a regular basis.

    With that in mind, perhaps it is no coincidence that Irish attitudes to the union have been consistently more positive than the EU average since the late 1980s, coinciding with the Crotty decision and the moment when the Irish, alone among Europeans, were given the right to a say in the future direction of the project.

    America prides itself on its "laboratories of democracy", the 50 states which make up the union. The idea is simple. New ideas are tried out by the states (or in some cases, cities and counties) and those which work filter upwards to federal level.

    In practice, it doesn't always work that way, but there is merit to the idea. All politics may be local, as an American politician once said, but that doesn't mean the lessons learned cannot be applied at national – or international – level.

    The EU is far from a perfect laboratory for politics, but it does have in its member states 27 laboratories.

    Ireland faces major problems, with one in seven unemployed (half of those jobless for over a year), eye-watering borrowings, and the grim promise of more austerity both from government and the opposition benches in parliament. And yet, for the most part, the people still believe in the European ideal, or at least some variant of it. When France rejected the European Constitution, the EU quickly ran from the idea of popular votes. The "optics" – governments running from their voters –  were not good.

    The democratic deficit is a tired refrain in debates on Europe, but experience from the Irish democratic laboratory suggests that, as the EU faces an existential crisis, it should move away from technocratic solutions and embrace a truly engaging politics.

    Image: Irish PM Enda Kenny, by William Murphy. CC licenced. 

  • Political crisis

    Politics leaves the EU

    12 December 2011

    Britain standing outside Europe is a failure for the EU more than it is for Britain, says Jason Walsh.

    The British government has undoubtedly taken a tentative step away from the EU, but in doing so it has accidentally stood up for democracy – not that you'd know this from reading the papers or listening to frustrated European politicians. The European press, and the liberal side of the British press for that matter, has been quick to slap down British prime minister David Cameron. OK, the Independent's front page splash 'Europe leaves Britain' was pretty funny, but is it really true? 

    Labour party politician Lord Mandelson, no stranger to technocracy, complained that Mr Cameron chose to buy off his "party critics by endorsing the necessary integration but without the United Kingdom having a seat at the table." Mr Mandelson is quite correct about this, but his understandable focus on how Europe will now treat Britain misses the bigger picture.

    Let's look at the facts: opposition to the direction the EU has been heading in is not the preserve of hard-right eurosceptics in the British Conservative party. France and the Netherlands rejected the proposed EU constitution in 2004 – right in the middle of the eurozone's good times. Next up, Ireland vetoed the Lisbon treaty in a 2008 referendum, only to pass it a year later when the electorate was frogmarched back to the polls.

    Does this indicate a seething, swivel-eyed anti-European sentiment? Not at all. What it does indicate, however, is a legitimate concern that the EU is paying no attention to what the people want.

    Growing anti-German sentiment is not exactly hard to see – and it's not without basis. Granted, blather about "Fourth Reichs" is not only deeply unhelpful, it is also entirely wrong. In the post-war era Germany became a master of subordinating its sovereignty to international institutions in order to further its national economic interests. The end result of the current process isn't the resurgent Germany that lives in the fevered dreams of Tory-voting retired colonels in the Home Counties (or at least in lefties' imaginations of such people), so much as it is as a distinctive new EU order. This on its own is no bad thing. A new, closer EU could easily be argued for, but only if it is sufficiently democratic and there is no sign that this is on the cards. Rather we are witnessing the formalisation of the subordination of national interests to German, and to a lesser degree French, business interests.

    Some on the left have had kind words to say about German capitalism versus Anglo-American capitalism and it is certainly true that German industry is a marvel. Nonetheless, such a blasé zero-sum comparison ignores the fact that Germany has suppressed wages in the past decade and supposes that all German workers are employed by the likes of BASF and BMW, ignoring the likes of Lidl and Aldi. Moreover, anyone who thinks the imposition of a "German model" means Greek industrial capacity will boom is sorely mistaken.

    What we are going to get, assuming it actually happens, is quite the opposite. What last week's summit proposed was that sovereign governments of the European Union should submit their finances and policies for approval before a panel of unelected bureaucrats. This is no more a strategy for industrial and economic growth than it is a flowering of democracy.

    The accidental politician

    James Heartfield, researcher at London's Queen Mary University, makes an excellent point when he says that Europe's key failing, exposed by last week's summit, is that it is anti-political in nature.

    "Overall it shows that Europe can't do politics because they've reduced all politics to questions of procedure," he said.

    In this the EU reflects many contemporary trends. Consider some recent bugbears, many of which I have aired here in PressEurop: the financialisation of the economy, the shallowness of banker-bashing, continual avoidance of public votes, to the Occupy movement being obsessed with process at the expense of politics. A diverse range of complaints, to be sure, but the underlying issue in all of them is a move away from political confrontation toward sub-issues and questions of procedure. 

    Politics is hard. It amounts to an argument and often you lose. But that is no reason to give up and try to bypass it with technical procedures. In rejecting this, even if his reasons for doing so were questionable, Mr Cameron has struck a blow for politics.

    Desperate to keep its single biggest trading partner on the euro train, the Irish government has said it will make a major diplomatic effort to bring Britain back to the EU table. But Ireland isn't exactly playing a democratic role in this affair. The country's budgets are now set within parameters set down by the EU-ECB-IMF troika and the country's independence has been reduced to trying to hold on to its low rate of corporation tax, which has become a political third rail in the absence of a real industrial policy. Moreover, despite a 1987 Irish Supreme Court decison saying any constitutional changes must be put to a referendum, the Irish government will do anything it can to avoid having to go the polls.

    Just prior to the summit, New York based economic commentator Doug Henwood, author of "After the New Economy", stuck an interesting note, telling me the EU would do nothing to resolve the crisis in the eurozone. 

    "All these summits are empty showmanship. As they end, they just recycle the previous press release. No one wants to admit that Greece and other debtors can't pay, and some kind of debt restructuring is necessary as part of a long-term recovery and growth strategy. But as long as the German sadomonetarists are in charge, that's not going to happen," he said. 

    Strong words, but not wrong. Since then we have seen precisely what Mr Henwood predicted occur.

    Tory truculence has precipitated a crisis for the EU that should not simply be dismissed as Britain losing out. What is really interesting is that this latest round of EU negotiations, no different in form to any that went before, was the straw that finally broke Cameron's back. One doesn't have to be a fan of Mr Cameron or his party to see that a return to national governments making decisions brings power closer to the people.

    Image by UK government's Department of Business, Innovation and Skills. CC licenced. 

  • Society

    By what authority are you saying that?

    08 December 2011

    The crisis of authority is of our own making – and it's getting out of hand, accelerated by our "network society", says Jason Walsh.

    These days I don't much like criticising journalism, certainly not individual journalists at any rate. It's not that I think the press should be above criticism – quite the opposite, in fact. It's just that journalists' self-abasement has reached fever pitch in recent years – and I'm not speaking of the Leveson inquiry

    When journalists started accepting that truth was beyond their ken, they found a willing audience – and body of work – in the form of academics who had completely given up on the very notion of truth, and certainly of empirical evidence, all the better to pass off their innate conservatism as "transgressive". 

    During the 1990s we saw journalists beat a hasty retreat from their traditional position of objective reporting of events and sorting of facts. Most obviously this was seen in the so-called "journalism of attachment" that arose from a post-Cold War crisis in war reporting. What it amounted to was taking sides in complex conflicts and reducing them to simple, emotive and easily digestible morality tales. Journalists abandoned their claims to objectivity and, crucially, authority, saying both were not only impossible, but in fact morally suspect.

    The assault on authority only got stronger with the rise of the internet, with editors relying on clicks alone as the sole metric by which a story is to be judged. The result is well understood: sturm und drang editorialising, endless 'news of the weird' and the growing cleave between those publications serving people with a financial interest in the world and those that formerly served the rest of us who were supposedly socially invested in the world. 

    It gets worse, though.

    Just this afternoon, fellow PressEurop contributor Stephen Rainey drew to my attention a story in the British press that quotes Wikipedia co-founder Jimmy Wales bemoaning that public relations company Bell Pottinger has been editing Wikipedia entries to cast its clients in a more favourable light.

    Well, tough luck Jimmy.

    First of all, PR companies are hired specifically to cast their clients in a favourable light. That's what they do.

    More importantly, this is what happens when you render authority itself suspect, attempting to replace it with the "wisdom of crowds" or endless, competing "plural narratives". 

    Just what is actually going on here?

    The fact that Wikipedia can be edited by anyone means it can never have authority. It can be right, it can be true, it can be interesting and it can be a starting point. But it cannot be trusted. This is only a problem if you plan to short-circuit the entire research process, instead preferring to receive a pat on the head or slap on the back for stating a secession of decontextualised info-nuggets.

    Anyone who has been paying attention, and surely PressEurop readers have been, will know the shortage of authoritative, serious, self-assured analytic journalism has come back to bite us in the ongoing eurocrisis

    But the crisis of authority goes well beyond the worlds of journalism and the academy.

    In exactly the same way, neo-activist pseudo-political movements like 'Anonymous' and 'Occupy', run a mile from formal organisation, have agonised over making clear demands and allow everyone and no-one to speak for them. Spoken of as direct democracy in action, these operational methods actually mask a contempt for the demos and make a virtue of the necessity of the shallowness of connections in our brave new "network society"

    Making a call to reclaim authority, the possibility of truth and the importance of empirical evidence is a highly unpopular position today, leading as it does to claims of elitism.

    This is, of course, nonsense.

    Authority is not God-given, it comes with experience. It also must always be prepared to face challenges and answer as to its basis. In the case of journalists, authority derives from repetition and, even for generalist reporters, degrees of specialisation. Likewise, serious scholarly inquiry requires dogged attention to facts. In politics, what matters is using the democratic mandate to provide leadership – a marriage of legitimacy and authority.

    We, all of us, need to stop slapping each other on our backs and get back to working out what actually matters in the world we live in.

    Image by pfly. CC licenced.

  • Citizenship

    It's Greece versus Rome, and Rome rules

    08 December 2011

    We need to take the role of active citizenship more seriously, argues philosopher Stephen Rainey.

    Being a citizen in ancient Greece meant taking part in matters of the city. This meant proposing, debating, opposing, supporting measures or initiatives for the good of the state. If you chose to not be an citizen in this full-blooded sense, you were considered a kind of pariah. One antonym for 'citizen' was barbarian.

    Another antonym for citizen was ‘idiotes.’ If you were not an active citizen, you were an idiot. Idiots were people too caught up in their own private affairs to take stock of or contribute to the public life that facilitated that very inaction.

    This idea of the private and public realms survived the enlightenment and became a keystone in the idea of how a citizen ought to contribute to society. Immanuel Kant described the distinction like this: Privately we must obey law, but always be ready publicly to challenge it. This way of putting things can seem odd to the contemporary eye.

    Generally, it's thought now that privacy involves being master of our own domain – a region of privileged access where we can do, make, say, think what we like. It's something we can protect with appeal to law if we feel it necessary.

    The public realm is where we need to obey. It's out there. That's the realm where my ends and yours can clash. We appeal to laws and social norms to anticipate potential problems. We obey in the public realm so that friction is avoided.

    Where's the questioning role of the citizen in this tableau? Privately we expect entitlement to hold opinion. Publicly we expect external powers to foreclose on interpersonal clashes. We can think what we like, but are wise to say nothing.

    Greco-Roman Wrestling

    Not being an idiot in ancient Greece was underwritten by an interpersonal phenomenon. People were physically closer to each other in space, and in terms of social make-up. Getting involved in such a context remains eminently possible.

    We now don't have anything like an Athenian democracy. For one thing, we don't keep slaves to exclude. Women are not officially politically subjugated. Our cities, states and constituencies far out-measure anything Athenian. The interpersonal basis of our lot is strained from the beginning. But, in fact, this isn't the real issue.

    Europeans think they carry with them a legacy of Greek civilisation in democracy. We're awfully proud of it. Even those who fled to the New World were swift to erect Grecian-looking buildings. Despite that, the democracy we enjoy (to a greater or lesser extent) is Roman democracy.

    At the centre of the Greek democratic ideal was the idea of debate. Endless, rarefied debate, usually related to a complex and deeply textured comprehension of 'the good life'. At the centre of Roman democracy is the fasces. The Greek ideal is semantic; the Roman, syntax.

    In this contrast we can see why the Kantian sentence could look backwards to us. Kant espoused an enlightenment ideal of Greek reason in public life. The public sphere was the arena for disagreement. For us, that's where control is needed. It's Greece versus Rome, and Rome rules.

    A very public privacy

    Recently, with the advent of overt market interventions destabilising and removing democratic régimes in Europe we hear national sovereignty is at stake. In the increasingly security-obsessed nations we live in, we feel our privacy is under attack. Personal sovereignty is eroded as well as national. But the problem could be seen the other way around.

    The public sphere that does exist for us is eminently Roman. It is where challenge is precluded. But personal sovereignty is coming to dominate the public sphere. We think 'everyone should be allowed to have their own opinion.' But for us the private is free and the public is closed to debate.

    Once an opinion is expressed, it is treated as protected. Witness how opposing a view triggers discussion about the ethics of causing offence, not the soundness of that view. As this idea of the private realm encroaches on the public we get instead of argument, unquestionable expressions of taste. We see instead of journalism, gossip. Instead of politics, patronisation.

    As long as we presume we have the ancient Greek ideal of democracy, but exist in the Roman, this dissonance will go on. What we need to counter these unsettling tendencies is a swing to the Greek pole of privacy, expressed by Kant. Privately we do what we must, but publicly we take a position, argue, oppose, propose and get involved in the public sphere that facilitates the existence we have.

    We need to worry less about protecting our privacy, more about liberating our publicity. Part of this means not waiting for a mechanism to be put in place. It means setting sail fully knowing leaks will spring and have to be plugged at sea. The stake is a revitalisation of the public sphere on Enlightenment terms, and a rebuff of Roman democracy.

    If only we weren't such idiots.

    Image by Anna Fox. CC licenced.

  • EU democracy

    Can Van Rompuy bypass a referendum?

    07 December 2011

    Herman Van Rompuy wants to avoid a referendum on treaty change. Can he do it?

    With European leaders proposing a new treaty to shore up the euro by moving toward fiscal union, storm clouds are already gathering on the horizon. British prime minister David Cameron has indicated his desire to distance Britain from any further centralisation of powers in Brussels. Seeking to get around the always noisy British, Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy have said the new treaty could, if necessary, apply only to the seventeen members of the eurozone, rather than the entire EU.

    But even that is going to be hard sell.

    European Council president Herman Van Rompuy considered the plans yesterday. While mulling it over he no doubt cast a glance westward, because one small, marginal and put-upon country on the Atlantic fringe of Europe could scupper even this lesser treaty: Ireland. Due to a 1987 Irish supreme court decision any amendments to the country's constitution – and moves to formally centralise fiscal policy in the hands of European institutions surely meet such criteria – must be put to the will of the people in a referendum. 

    As a result, Mr Van Rompuy's office has come up with an alternative plan to move toward fiscal union without facing national parliaments or the public via a passerelle clause. A leaked European Council document I received last night flat out states alternatives to going down the constitutional convention route. The cost is, the measures allowed to be passed via a passerelle will not amount to the kind of treaty change Ms Merkel wants. 

    Not traditionally eurosceptic, at least not in the sense understood by Britain, Ireland has all the same twice rejected EU treaties as not being in its national self interest, first the Nice treaty in 2001, and then the Lisbon treaty in 2008. In both cases Irish governments managed to force through second referendums a year later, eventually winning. But could it manage the same trick a third time?

    The uneasy coalition of right and left that fought against the Lisbon treaty, in part because they saw it as a "self-amending" treaty due to the proliferation of passerelle clauses, is already gathering.

    Businessman Declan Ganley, widely reviled by the Irish political establishment for his campaigning against the Lisbon treaty in 2008 and 2009. Ganley's pan-European political ambitions floundered at the polls, with his Libertas party failing to make a dent in the 2009 European parliament elections, but the fact that he couldn't muster a positive vote doesn't mean he can't rally another negative one. Ganley has already objected to the move in the most vociferous terms.

    Meanwhile, Ireland's left, composed of Sinn Féin and the United Left Alliance, has said it will consider challenging any move toward fiscal union via passerelle in court.

    If the measure is put to people it will be a very hard sell. After all, with all of the mainstream political parties, the majority newspapers and media outlets supporting it (not to mention bent rules on fairness stacking the deck in favour of the Yes side) it still took two runs to frogmarch the Irish into doing what they were told.

    There is recent form when it comes to the Irish saying No. A referendum asking if Ireland's parliament should be given powers of investigation, something most Irish people are in favour of, was defeated on October 27 as the wording of the measure suggested the parliament would be given too much power to slander citizens not convicted of any crime. Another referendum, held on the same day, giving politicians the power to cut judges' pay passed with ease. Politicians, academics and journalists regularly bemoan the lack of interest in politics among the public, but the reasoning on display in the former suggests the Irish public is, in fact, incredibly sophisticated in its responses to complicated initiatives, even if the latter result could be described as being the result of a simpler question more in tune with the popular mood.

    This is precisely the kind of sticking point a new or modified EU treaty could live or die by. Most Irish people don't want a withdrawal from the euro, fearing a return to the pound would result in a collapse in living standards, but they have also shown themselves to be sticklers for detail.  

    What any new treaty will have to overcome is a public bloodied by harsh austerity budget after harsh austerity budget in a nation only ever conditionally pro-EU, a public worried about the detail of any changed treaty. Finally, a public keen to respond to questions from government with 'if you don't know, vote no'.

    Little wonder then, that the European Council is reaching for its passerelle…

    Image by William Murphy. CC licenced.

  • Eurocrisis

    The weakness of the European Council

    02 December 2011

    As Europe’s financial and economic catastrophe morphs into a full-scale constitutional crisis, where is leadership to be found, asks Ben Tonra. 

    Two landmark interventions; that of the German philosopher Jurgen Habermas and that of Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski offer some striking contrasts. Both identify political weakness in Berlin as a major contributory factor but they appear to differ quite profoundly on the appropriate prescription. 

    Sikorski’s dramatic call on Germany to shoulder its political and economic responsibilities for Europe’s rescue was framed in an oddly traditional way. Further economic integration – up to and including a fiscal union – is clearly on the table, but Sikorski was working within a firmly intergovernmental model. This would provide for immeasurably tighter monitoring and supervision of national budgets through the European Council and Council of EU Finance Ministers and/or the Eurogroup of ministers. This would be offered in exchange for eurozone burden sharing of national debt and borrowing. Sikorski’s essential critique of the German government was that it had offered no clear map as to how to achieve this, either through existing treaty provisions or proposals for treaty change. Moreover, he seemed to suggest that the scale and pace of the crisis’ development did not lend itself to the unsophisticated game of ‘chicken’ being played by Germany vis-á-vis both markets and other EU member states. The fact that such a call for assertive German leadership was coming from a senior Polish government minister, lent an obvious frisson to the argument.

    By contrast, the critique of Jurgen Habermas was that the failure of German leadership rested in that government’s unwillingness to grasp Europe’s urgent need for democracy and accountability. In a useful note, the Centre for European Reform had styled this as the triumph of de Gaulle over Monnet: a Europe des patries rather than a Europe tout court. The emergence of the so-called Frankfurt Group is symptomatic of this shift, being an economic directoire in all but name. For Habermas, however, the danger is much greater. European integration has already moved far beyond anything de Gaulle might have considered and the democratic moorings of the entire European project are coming loose. For Habermas, the European Council and eurozone finance ministers are, in effect, walking away from their essential responsibilities and subcontracting decision making either to markets or to committees of technocrats in thrall to markets. For him, essential political accountability and responsibility is being lost.

    Decsion time in Europe

    Europe now faces choices whose significance is at least on a par with those taken in the aftermath of the Second World War. Basic social contracts within member states are under extreme pressure and the very foundations of socio-economic policy making are being recast.  This cannot be accommodated in democratic societies without the means by which such decisions are validated and held accountable. If national budgetary decision-making is to be placed within a strong collective European framework, then that framework has also to be made legitimate and accountable. The European Council (and its associated thematic councils), is not fit for that purpose; either in principle or in practice.

    The principled arguments surrounding the democratic weaknesses of the European Council are well rehearsed and Habermas pulls no punches in talking about an effective coup d’etat within the European institutions. For those, however, who view the crisis as being so acute as to make principles a luxury we can ill afford, note should also be taken of the Council’s practical weaknesses. Any proposed model of eurozone economic governance has to have both capacity and credibility. The European Council has shown itself to have neither. Over the last few months, its capacity to react effectively to market challenges has been widely, if not universally, denounced. The nature of its decision-making and the political realities which rest behind the need for consensus fatally undermine its capacity to act and, as we have seen in recent months, have contributed substantively to the contagion now gripping the markets. Nor is this simply a function of lacking the requisite tools. The Council was incapable of even implementing its own rules within the Stability and Growth Pact – most notably giving a ‘pass’ to Germany and France when they broke its terms. The Council has thus little or no credibility as forum within which national governments – and, most especially, the most powerful national governments can be held to account.

    With even the scourge of the Lisbon treaty, Declan Ganley, calling for a fully federal Europe perhaps the normal laws of political gravity no longer apply. It is certainly true to say, however, that if European governments elect to proceed on a course which creates a fiscal union in support of the single currency, their choices may well have to reflect the realities of international markets but they must also respect the demands of democratic accountability.

    Image by ines saraiva. CC licenced. 

  • Extremism

    Mad or just bad, Breivik is not a harbinger of things to come

    01 December 2011

    Mass-murderer Anders Breivik may or may not be insane, but his actions do not indicate a radical right on the rise, says Jason Walsh.

    Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people in a bomb blast and gun rampage on July 22, has been declared criminally insane, angering many who wanted to see him face the consequences of his murderous actions.

    We in the press commonly refer to murderers like Breivik as "madmen". This is not because journalists are all secretly experts in psycho-medical diagnoses, but because such murders are so repellant that it is impossible to conceive of them as the work of a sane person. 

    The specific diagnosis given Breivik of paranoid schizophrenia is open to question, but the result is that he will likely spend the rest of his life incarcerated in a mental hospital rather than facing trial and imprisonment, which could have seen him released after two decades. Frankly, given the shocking scale of Breivik's murders, it is hard to ignore the possibility that such a fact formed part of the reasoning behind the judgement.

    Some have speculated that Breivik himself may be disappointed that he won't be able to obtain the status of martyr in prison.

    Others are furious and see the diagnosis itself as proof of Norwegian – and European – society being fundamentally racist.  

    Writing in the Guardian, writer and far left politician Aslak Sira Myhre took the opportunity to slam the decision, saying Breivik was not mad but instead expressed the "white man's hatred that we have known for a century." Making the argument, Mr Myhre cited Norway's post-war decision to declare insane Knut Hamsun – author and supporter of the Quisling Nazi-collaborationist regime – as a precedent of Norway's failure to deal with fascist politics.

    Maybe so, but in making charges of widespread racism and casually forming a causal link from this to the acts of Breivik is going much too far.

    If anything Breivik's lone wolf actions prove the opposite: that the far right is not on the march in Norway.

    There has unquestionably been a rise of populism in Europe, and not just in the EU, but directly linking this to Breivik's spree-killing makes little sense. For a start, populism exists on the left as much as the right and in both cases it is inflamed by a sense of loss of control of democratic politics. In the case of the EU, and eurozone in particular, it is not exactly hard to understand why such feelings should take hold.

    What is happening in Norway I shall leave for Norwegians to explain, but it is vital to remember that Norway remains a social democratic country and has refused to join the EU primarily because it fears it would lose control of the Keynesian social welfare system it has built on its massive oil wealth. 

    In the latest elections in Norway (local government elections held in September 2011) the Labour party won the largest share of the vote, with 31.7 percent. The Conservatives came second with 28 per cent. The Progress party, which has been called far right by some, came third with 11.4 per cent, followed by the Centre party (6.8 per cent) and Liberal party (6.3 per cent).

    Breivik had once been a member of the Progress party, but left in 2007 because he felt it too soft for his extreme views. No doubt it was. Although it is undeniably right wing and populist and has made statements about Europe's supposed "Islamisation", it built its support on a policy platform of increasing Keynesian redistributism while also cutting taxes, all to be paid for with oil revenue. In this at least it is well within the mainstream of Norwegian politics and to the economic left of many much more mainstream European parties.

    It is also not coincidental that the Progress party lost a third of its vote in the wake of Breivik's killing spree, despite doing all it could to distance itself from him.

    Is Breivik insane? I do not know. Certainly his actions were not those of a rational person, but deeply irrational, mentally ill people can perform all manner of complicated feats. The idea that he cannot possibly be mentally ill rests on a prejudice that the disturbed can only ever be gibbering shadows of people, a proposition no psychiatrist would agree with. 

    Similarly, the idea that all fundamentalists and extremists, even those who do not act on their views by killing others, are insane is clearly bunk. It is wrong to think that because someone holds different views, no matter how odious, that they are somehow sick.

    For my part, I think it is a pity Breivik won't have to answer for his crimes in a court of law, but that is a matter for Norway, not me. However, the rush to judge his actions as part of a widespread and rising radicalised racism is to believe in precisely the kind of jackbooted fantasy Breivik himself dealt in.

    Image by Surian Soosay. CC licenced.

  • Economic crisis

    Technocracy has been here all along

    29 November 2011

    Want to escape technocracy? Start listening to generalist thinkers, not just financiers and economists, says philosopher Stephen Rainey.

    Recently, as it is hard to ignore, economic matters have come to dominate the headlines in unprecedented ways, and in doing so have come to preoccupy the minds of citizens everywhere. The facts of asset leveraging, debt and the increasing attention paid to credit entitlement are etched in the current zeitgeist and are set to make for an increasingly multi-polar world.

    Certainly, this means a shift away from the 'Western' and 'emerging market' assumptions that have hitherto been taken as read. For reasons not limited to simple self-interest, this must be acknowledged should any manner of stability be possible in the future. But why is it that transactions, apparently quite abstract and incomprehensible to most people, could suddenly have such a deep impact on the everyday lives of so many people? Truth is, we’ve all been prey to technocracy for some time, not just Greece and Italy, and will continue to do so until the value of generalist perspectives are taken seriously.

    Two reorientations in recent capitalism

    As recently as November 2011 in a BBC Radio Four documentary, Adair Turner, former head of the UK's Financial Services Authority was bemoaning "intellectual failures of understanding" among policymakers that he supposed had led to policy decisions being taken in ways that permitted problematic financial activity. Among politicians it had become a commonplace that financial services were somehow a natural next step in the evolution of capitalism, akin to the change to industrial from agrarian capitalism. This tacit assumption was coupled with – or perhaps caused – a change in perception of just what financial services was intended to do in the first place. 

    In the same documentary Mohamed El Erian, of major bond market trading company PIMCO, noted how the "financial services industry" started to be referred to as the "financial industry." What might have begun as a shorthand, however, brought about a re-imagining of the purpose of the enterprise. What changed was that the connection between what financial services industries did and the real economies that they serviced broke down. 'Financial industry' took on an air of self-sufficiency – as if the endeavours of those in that industry created finance, rather than the more realistic but perhaps more humble aim of facilitating financial action by means of servicing a real economy. 

    The combination of these views leads to a problematic outcome.

    In supposing financial services to be a natural step in the evolution of capitalism, it is posited that there is an internal logic to capitalism that, in reaching a crucial stage of evolution, ought not to be stopped for fear of derailing capitalism itself. The principle of capitalism for many reasons is a highly prized achievement of human endeavour. Were it not for the mediation of capital in power and influence it would arguably be impossible to advance as a society beyond traditional structures reliant upon the individual magnetism of charismatic individuals, or authority as imparted by sainted bloodlines and so on. In this respect, capitalism is the great leveller. If Turner is right, then policymakers were feeling the weight of this as they framed policy concerning financial services. It is in such a context that we can see how easily policymaking could come to serve financial services.

    The autonomy of financial services is implicit in the position El Erian outlines too, but it is even more strongly manifested in that the change of identity from financial services industry to financial industry obliterates the connection to the real economy that the financial services only really exist to augment.

    Again, the connection to the noblest possibilities of capitalism in principle is worth mentioning in connection to this point. On the assumption that financial services were the next step in capitalism, there was formed a policy background that could serve these services. This was so to facilitate the proper unfolding of the logic of capitalism. This itself is predicated in the highest hopes for humanity (rather than malign intent) we can presume. But now, with the disconnection from the real economy that the financial services are meant to serve, the presumed autonomy of these services is suddenly turbo-charged. The newly christened financial industry is assumed to have an internal logic that it is imperative to allow to unfold unhindered, and this unfolding need have no connection to actual economies.

    These 'actual economies', moreover are just those relations among real people, retailers, banks, civic authorities and so on, mediated by the institution of capital. In other words, owing to two problematic assumptions flagged by Turner and El Erian, the financial services industry came to be an autonomous sphere of activity, encouraged by policymaking to engage in self-sufficient action unrelated to the everyday comings and goings of human plans and interests. In the name of capitalism, it disconnected from the loci of capitalistic interactions. A peculiar and damaging contradiction indeed.

    The consequences of this contradiction have been playing out in the social, political and private spheres since 2008. One need only scan the news media to get a flavour of the tragedy, confusion, anger, spite and vitriol that have flowed from it. What this suggests is that too much faith is currently placed in expertise. When experts make shoddy assumptions, what check is there on them? Laid out as above, the issue is stark and frankly baffling. How could this have been so? The solution must lie in a destablising mechanism somewhere within governance. One good place to start would be to arrest the reliance upon experts as the ordained high-priests of specialist wisdom. The value of generalists is worth investigating.

    A view from outside the cocoon of finance might easily have spotted the worrying nature of the posit that capitalism has an internal logic whose unfolding must be facilitated even at the expense of relevance to real economies. It won’t be had from people whose knowledge is undeniably high-level and expert. By definition, these people know in great detail a vanishingly small area of a generally obscure field. Reality doesn’t bend to the abstractions of expertise.

    People fear technocracy in the wake of Greece and Italy. It’s been there all along. It got us here.

    Image by Alastair Rae. CC licenced. 

  • Journalism

    Press delete

    28 November 2011

    The news media is supposed to serve the public, but recent episodes indicate we spend too much time listening to those who shout loudest.

    Earlier this month a row erupted when a series of high profile women writers claimed women are singled-out for misogynist abuse from online 'commenters'. Whatever the merits of the claim, there is no doubt that online comment culture is, more often than not, an unedifying spectacle.

    Much has been made of the nature of internet-based discourse, and rightly so. It is self-evidently true that allowing people to leave anonymous and pseudonymous comments under a story invites a level of vitriol that would be almost inconceivable in any other forum. But in all the discussion over misogyny, verbal abuse, threats and libel one thing has been missed entirely: the press has lost faith in its role of reporting, analysing and explaining the world we live in.

    Let's be clear about this: there is nothing wrong with robust debate. In fact we need it, and if the price of that is a trail of drool under any significant story, then, unfortunately, so be it. But let's also note that it was news organisations who opened the floodgates, desperate for feedback on their work and attempting to transform fickle internet browsers into loyal readers by offering them a sense of ownership through contributing.

    As a friend recently said to me on the issue of online comments, the idea that we have a 'right' to have our opinions published is bizarre. Unless you are the subject of story then how could you have such a right? Journalists certainly enjoy no right to be published. In fact, they either fight for space or find themselves writing about things far removed from their personal concerns and interests – and journalism is all the better for this. It is a job, after all, not a hobby.

    Opinion journalism, like this piece you are now reading, is on the rise for reasons that are well-understood in the industry: it's inexpensive to produce and, if sufficiently outrageous, will be more widely read than many news stories. That is not to say that opinion is without value. A well-crafted opinion piece (I make no such claims for my missives here) can help elucidate the subject, teasing-out new ideas and implications from the words and actions of others. It must, however, be subordinate to reporting, the real basis for much of what we know about the world.

    And yet, even in hard news there has been a marked retreat from authority with publishers increasingly selecting stories on the basis of readers' instantaneous responses. Look at the 'most-viewed stories' lists that are de rigeur on any news web site these days and it will be a rare one that doesn't feature some fairly dubious material near the top of the list. This race to the bottom is of our own making. It was we who, in our lack of belief in what we do, told readers our work was worthless by giving it away free online; it was we who asked our readers to do more and more of our work for us; it was we who decided to deprecate the concise and crafted letter to the editor in favour of the rambling comment and off-the-cuff remark.

    For fear anyone thinks this is merely a pompous bromide against the popular press, let me state that there's nothing wrong with amusing news stories. A newspaper composed entirely of 'worthy' material would make for a very thin gruel indeed. Moreover, tabloid newspapers routinely break stories of real significance. But the transformation of the press, tabloid and broadsheet alike, into a mirror that does little more than reflect its readers' prejudices and provide an ever-shifting kaleidoscope of context-free factoids devalues news, both intrinsically and instrumentally. If anything the latter is more worrying. After all, it is news' instrumental value that we pay for with our hard-earned pounds, shillings and pence, dollars, euros and cents. Those of us who still pay for news, that is.

    Some academics may call this process of bowing to readers 'reflexive'. I call it the death throes of popular reporting. As one editor recently said to me: "I just see loss of quality and a lot of aggregation […] it seems as if we're shutting down [what we do best] step-by-step." Will we really be happy when the only newspapers in the true sense of the word are ones that serve the political and financial elites who expressly need to know about the world? Do the rest of us care so little? Have we no investment in society?

    It's not just online comments or allowing the search for so-called virals and 'memes' to decide what we cover, either. All manner of hit-and-run activity is now directing the news. Although the user-generated content gold rush does appear to have died down, the fashion for allowing 'social media' to mould the news agenda is undeniable.

    Every election is now routinely described as "the first social media election" but Ireland's recent presidential race fits the bill, albeit in not quite the way the term is usually understood. Leading candidate Seán Gallagher was ambushed on a live TV debate when a fake Twitter account claiming to the official voice of a competing candidate, Martin McGuinness of Sinn Féin, announced the party would provide evidence that Mr Gallagher had fundraised on behalf of Fianna Fáil, Ireland's former governing party widely blamed for the country's current economic travails.

    The Twitter message read: "The man that Gallagher took the cheque from will be at a press conference tomorrow. #aras11."

    No such press conference ever occurred.

    It is by no means certain that it was Twitter that did for Mr Gallagher, who went on to lose the race. His campaign was already flagging as his links to Fianna Fáil began to be exposed and serious questions were being asked about his business dealings. He dealt with both sets of allegations poorly. Nonetheless, Mr Gallagher has a point when he says national broadcaster RTÉ "ought to have known" the account was not genuine.

    Questions remain as to just who operated the account (it was active for weeks in advance of taking the pot-shot at Mr Gallagher) but its unverified use by RTÉ indicates a desire to have the finger on the pulse overriding the need to get things right. A single telephone call to the Sinn Féin press office could have verified the (absence of) veracity of the message read aloud on live television.

    All the wordy claims of the fashion for two-way journalism being direct democracy in action or a new and freer media ignore the fact that journalists' claim to expert status is not based on arcane anointment, but in the experience of repetitive reporting of events making for an ability to make comparisons between these events. For instance, meeting the sudden surge of interest in fiscal policy, sovereignty and the euro requires a baseline of experience in economics, finance and the institutions of the European Union at the very least. Reporting and editing is matter of measuring – but how can we measure anything if we allow the loudest voices we can hear to override our professional judgement?

    Journalism does need to be responsive to the public it serves, to move on stories that people care about not just ones editors think they should care about. But the movement need not be that of journalists twisting in the wind.

    Image by divinemisscopa. CC licenced.

  • Finance

    Don’t invest too much in bank-bashing

    24 November 2011

    Banks acted stupidly, but the fashion for denigrating finance is going too far.

    As the interlocking financial and political crises in the eurozone and Occupy movement continue to make headlines – and fill comment pages – around the world, more and more people are lining-up to criticise bankers. Credit where credit is due, banks bear responsibility for the global financial meltdown, but they should not shoulder it alone.

    To argue that the economy is in turmoil solely because reckless bankers is to prefer morality to reality. What of the failures of industry? What of the absence of investment in productive activity? And of the various governments' abrogation of their roles in encouraging just such investment?

    There is a world of difference between bashing bankers and formulating a systematic critique of political economy, let alone proposing a route out of the current global economic crisis. I myself, no economist, have long advocated major strategic investment in productive industry and complained of the lopsided growth of finance (and continue to do so), but complaining about high-finance is not going to make that investment appear out of thin air. 

    A national economy cannot be sustained on the buying and selling of complex financial instruments, but that is not to say that finance is unnecessary. Finance serves to channel capital around and manage risk, capital that is supposed to provide the means for investment in the productive activity that we all want to see more of. That, in the much of West, profiting from this was allowed to become a surrogate for real economic activity, covering up for a longterm decline in productivity, is something that is still not being sufficiently addressed. 

    Some curious arguments are beginning to emanate, including from the liberal-left. Quite apart from the rank class snobbery of referring to bankers as 'spivs' (a term only ever directed at working class people who have made money), we are now beginning to see the complete disconnection of politics from economics. Into the void steps morality. This should not be possible from a political movement that counts economists like Marx and Keynes (who didn't at all advocate the same things, incidentally) as its forebears, but the left's abandonment of political economy is now near-total. 

    Beyond disgust with bankers' bonuses, availability of credit is the main bugbear, but such arguments often end-up in strange territory. The rising popularity of the likes of Max Keiser among some on the liberal-left illustrates a failure to actually understand not only economics, but what the man is saying. It is easy to see how rhetoric about "banksters" and calling JP Morgan "the biggest financial terrorist on Wall Street" strikes a chord, but it is more difficult to understand why no-one appears to have noticed that beneath this kind of populism lies a fundamentally conservative approach to economics: a return to having currencies based on gold supply. Known as the gold standard, any such act that would mean a lot less money would be out there in the economy.

    The current spike in gold prices is a result of people worrying that debt cannot be paid-down by issuing more debt. That is true enough, at least in the absence of growth, but it is surprising that people ostensibly concerned about economic inequality think the solution is going to be found in making money even more scarce. Advocating for the gold standard is a valid position, but it's not a left or liberal one by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, it's the ultimate austerity package. Heretofore, restriction of the money supply, known as monetarism, was the preserve of the free-market right. To hear it echoed in the comment sections of liberal newspapers makes for some very strange bedfellows.

    Many people's answer to the problem of sub-prime mortgages, the proximate cause of the financial crisis in 2008, appears to be that poor people shouldn't be allowed to own their own homes. The mistake of flooding the economy with cheap credit is clear enough, but this pump-priming was done in order to make-up for a real decline in capital investment in productive industry where consumer spending was supposed to be the key to spurring growth. In addition, the sub-prime problem had such serious consequences because the original lenders had re-sold the mortgages to major banks – this is a (failed) strategy of risk aversion, not one of casino-like gambling.

    Even the argument that the daily banking operations of high street banks should be 'ringfenced' from high finance underscore a failure to really get to grips with what finance is, what purpose it serves and how it does it. Moreover, a return to capricious control of lending by local bank managers does not sound like a progressive move to me.

    A recent activist move in the US saw thousands of people announce they planned to close their bank current and savings accounts and move to cooperatively run credit unions. On one level this is all well and good: credit unions are worthy ventures. But the move for a mass change was at best empty rhetoric. The problem is multi-faceted. For a start, operating a current account for a customer is often a loss-making venture for the bank, so by closing the accounts the activists were not, as they hoped, punishing the banks, but in fact helping them. Additionally, systemic risk increases because closing savings accounts amounts to a reduction in available capital, thus making them more, not less, dependent on volatile markets. At the same time it also lowers pressure to regulate banks because less of people's money is invested in them in the first place.

    If that alone doesn't give the activists pause for thought, perhaps this will: credit unions in the US already have too much money (US$942,481,000,000 as of June 2011). Loan portfolios have shrunk as saving has increased, a trend that will massively increase if the move is significant (it's too early to tell how many people did close their accounts) and without income from loans… well, you can see the problem.

    The critique of finance capital is that it has no sense of moral duty, simply chasing profits wherever they are to be found. This is true, but in this finance capital is really an outgrowth of industrial capital. The distinction between finance capital and industrial capital is real, but it is not moral and neither is unnecessary. 

    All-in-all what we have is a sudden rush of concern about money, but very little understanding of how either it, or indeed the real economy, functions. If anyone wants to propose a truly new model for economic exchange that's well and good, but the onus is on them to explain it and argue for it. In the here and how, too many of us are trying to have it both ways.

    Banking does need to be examined very closely, but what is needed right now is economic growth, not denunications of bankers.

    Image by Alessandro Demetrio. CC licenced. 

  • Eurocrisis

    The insolvent household called Europe

    23 November 2011

    We must rethink Europe's economy now, or else it faces oblivion.

    Not a week goes by without European leaders unveiling new, by-now ritualistic, plans to deal with the crisis that has engulfed the entire eurozone, issuing endless and largely meaningless statements of the obvious and holding vacuous summits. After a year and a half of wildfires in the form of market downgrades   the scorched financial landscape of the common currency remains under theat.

    In the meantime, the list of banned financial practices continues to grow and the litany of proposals to restrict information and transactions flows continues to expand. Having first destroyed economies of the ‘periphery’, the crisis is now demolishing fragile economic recovery even in the core economies of the eurozone. Political processes accompanying this devastation have been more ominous than anything seen since the end of the World War II – at least two countries have seen democratically-elected governments displaced in technocratic coups sponsored directly by the EU. Another core EU member state – the UK – is being repeatedly told to ‘shut up’, that its views are not wanted, by the Paris-Berlin duet of incompetence, venality and nationalistic surrealpolitik.

    Europe here and now

    This is the State of the Union in Europe today: a sordid fiasco that has exposed not just the irreparable technical faults of the single currency, but the deeply-rooted faults of the entire European Project. Conceived as a technocratic, but benign, tool for promotion of free trade, free mobility of labour and capital, the Union has morphed into a Brezhnevite bureaucracy that is now completely detached from its subjects and its core objectives, incapable of leadership and lacking both the expertise to deal with the crises and the willingness to listen.

    The plight of the euro area sovereign bonds markets might be the stuff of the front pages of the traditional newspapers, commonly focused on ‘big headlines’, but the real dimensions of the European crisis reach much deeper than the sovereign debt implosion we are witnessing. The real car crash is happening elsewhere – at the levels of European economies and financial systems.

    European economies are cancer-ridden with debt. Not just the sovereign debt, but what can be termed the real economy debt – a combination of sovereign, private non-financial corporate and household debts. The table below shows the extent of the real economic debt overhang in the advanced economies, as the end of 2010. The striking nature of many Euro area countries’ insolvencies is reinforced by the fact of their combined real economic debt overhangs. These have reached levels in excess of 250-255 percent of GDP and will yield permanent reductions in potential rates of economic growth, as shown by recent research from the Bank for International Settlements. (See: “The real effects of debt” by Stephen G. Cecchetti, M.S. Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli, 5 August 2011).

     

    No growth zone

    Much of this debt will have to be restructured. Eurozone economic growth, according to the latest IMF projections, is likely to average just 1.4 percent in constant prices terms in 2011-2013, against 3.7 percent for other advanced economies – and 4.1 percent for the world at large. The eurozone's output gap is projected to average -1.6 percent over the same period of time, meaning that, even under the most benign assumptions of full employment, the euro area is unlikely to achieve any substantial growth. The eurozone is rapidly decoupling from the rest of the world – between 2000 and 2015, the common currency area’s share of world GDP, adjusted for purchasing power of its currency, will decline from 18.34 percent to 12.72 percent despite the fact that the block membership has grown since the beginning of the century.

    The fiscal squeeze awaiting the eurozone is massive. In 2011, general government net borrowing by eurozone states will be around 4.15 percent of GDP. By 2015, the plans are to draw this down to -1.58 percent. Over the same period, non-euro area and ex-G7 advanced economies are expected to move from a benign deficit of -0.16 percent in 2011 to a surplus of 1.53 percent. And even with these ambitious austerity plans, the euro area’s government debt to GDP ratio will remain at 88 percent in 2015, against a non-euro area ratio of 34.3 percent.

    Courtesy of the debt overhang, the eurozone is likely to remain investment-starved compared to the rest of the world. The latest projections show that between 2000 and 2015, investment as proportion of GDP will decline from 22.1 percent to 20.5 percent while worldwide investment is likely to rise from 22.5 percent to 26.2 percent over the same period of time.

    The above projections are not taking into account the expected tsunami of banking asset de-leveraging across the common currency area. Using the European Banking Authority's stress testing model, imposing sovereign debt haircuts on PIIGS countries sufficient to bring their public debts to within the long term sustainability thresholds identified by research from the Bank for International Settlements, while raising banks core tier one capital ratios to the current US banking sector averages, will require €680-703 billion in fresh capital. Much of this will have to be raised over years to come and major part of these funds will have to come from assets disposal.

    By my estimates, some €230-305 billion in asset sales will be required to achieve stabilization of the European banking sector over 2012-2015 – a figure so staggeringly high that it will result in a perfect financial markets storm, combining:

     • Massive asset values collapse across Europe and deep asset values declines in the US and the UK, where major European banks hold large volumes of corporate and financial loans

     • An explosion on the ECB, Bank of England and Fed balance sheets as sales lags can require significant warehousing of assets and liquidity continues to dry up in the environment of general system-wide de-leveraging

     • Severe and prolonged credit crunch for European corporates as they compete for capex funding with markets saturated by banks' assets

     • Medium-term continued inability of the sovereigns to raise funding.

    All of the above factors are likely to compound the growth-retarding nature of European Union investment and development policies that, since time immemorial, relies on a centralised system of subsidies and public investment schemes.

    In short, Europe’s real crisis is not that of sovereign financing and banking insolvencies – it is a much more structural economic insolvency of the continent incapable of supporting real economic growth, yet saddled with political and consumer preferences for high and growing expenditure. The insolvent household called Europe can’t be rescued by getting another credit or by centralising all its finances in the hands of the stern grandfather that is Germany. Europe requires a radical rethink of the way we approach economic growth, a model for social development and a political system with democratic accountability. Barring that, it’s the proverbial dustbin of history for the Grand Project.

    Image by Images of Money. CC licenced.

     

  • The future of Europe

    Towards an open collaborative EU

    21 November 2011

    Despite fears of technocratic rule, new models of collaboration could lead to a more pluralist Europe. 

    The idea that Europe is experiencing a democracy deficit is becoming commonplace. 'Technocratic' rule, implemented due to emergency conditions in Greece and Italy is a hard to ignore symbol of what British Eurosceptics like Nigel Farage have been claiming as the inevitable outcome of European domination. First sovereignty is ceded, then democracy itself, they cry. 

    A history of bridging difference

    Between the revisions of the Treaty of Rome in the single European Act of 1987 and the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, there has been a concerted effort to shift policymaking in Europe from simple community ‘harmonisation’ in law to representative, pluralistic governance, respectful of difference.

    Community harmonisation lawmaking seeks uniformity in law across the union in order to ameliorate trade and national-cultural differences, particularly in cases where national identity or culture cause (or are seen to cause) inequalities. Governance, in contrast, seeks to account for difference by taking into account plurality and seeking authentic, representative dialogues on a ‘thick’ basis.

    No one denies the inevitable problems and challenges that will face any attempt to coordinate independent nations. Supranational authority will always jar with national authority. The European Union has the strong mechanism of subsidiarity, meaning national laws are required to interpret supranational directives. Supranational directives are written in self-consciously formal ways precisely to permit latitude in interpretation. The idea is to have a loose community of shared values, with the recognition of local variance. National identity and culture are important here in terms of policy as the principle of subsidiarity means that national self-determination must be respected, not dominated. While supra-national authority can make recommendations and even requirements for nations, it cannot actually enforce change at the national level, according to protocol 30 of the Treaty of Europe:

     

    Any national Parliament or any chamber of a national Parliament may, within six weeks from the date of transmission of a draft European legislative act, send to the Presidents of the European Parliament, the Council and the Commission a reasoned opinion stating why it considers that the draft in question does not comply with the principle of subsidiarity. It will be for each national Parliament or each chamber of a national Parliament to consult, where appropriate, regional parliaments with legislative powers.

     

    A political balancing act

    While the EU project seeks a loose community of common values, it has two extreme positions to balance. On the one hand, there are the values. These are pretty much embodied in human rights declarations. These are the essential desideratum for being European. However, given subsidiarity and the desire to recognise national difference, the value régime has to be regulated in a laissez faire manner. The values have to be interpreted at the national level in order to become law. This is the balancing act of European governance, then: communitarianism based in shared values, with liberalism in regulation. It is state vs civil society perfectionism.

    One mechanism the EU uses to make this balance is the so called Open Method of Coordination (OMC). OMC is intended as a ‘soft’, i.e. non-law-based, governance approach wherein community deliberations inform policy decisions nationally aimed at converging with policy goals set supra-nationally. In terms of Europe, EU ministers first agree on 'framework goals'. Second, member-states translate these guidelines into national and regional policies. Third, the ministers agree on benchmarks and indicators, to measure and compare best practice within the EU and worldwide. Finally, through evaluation and monitoring, member-states' performances are assessed – relative to each other and to their declared goals.

    OMC ensures not only that loose coordination of approaches toward given goals is possible, but permits national popular opinion, mediated by national governmental dealings, to directly influence policy among other EU nations and at the superstate level. More than this, however, OMC can be deployed as a mechanism at smaller scales. Based upon some expressed solidarity of interest, a 'framework goal', horse-trading can be undertaken to hammer out the details. Given the basic notion of this give and take is an expressed mutual interest, however, the whole process has common good as its driving force.

    The sort of Farage criticism of the EU has identity at its core. Regardless of who you are, you have needs that the state or that civil society can or ought to address. Using OMC as an approach to construct the means to address needs puts people first, and in a way that undercuts berkish nationalism.

    Slow Europe, fast – and loose – critics 

    The main problem with Europe is the speed at which it moves. It has a lot of research and ideas on governance and is certainly aware of the serious problems that attend supranational legitimacy. But the knee-jerk reaction to dissatisfaction with Europe tends to bring nationalism to the fore. That's as unrepresentative as blind, supra national forces. Present-day allegiances and identities are structured in ways that don't stop at borders. People identify with networks and ideas that don't necessarily resolve neatly even in the individual. A representative democratic solution will never be satisfactory if it clings to mythological ideas of nationalism.

    OMC is one of the good ideas in European governance as it is deliberative and focusses on solidarities of interests. The consequence of such governance would be more legitimacy, but more variance in implementation. A common Europe by various means. the question is how fast institutions can move to accommodate this, or if the will exists to exploit these Made in Europe governance approaches in the interests of Europeans.

    And of course it is the national governments who have the authority to implement OMC. Why wouldn't they do so? Likely outcomes of OMC are the dissipation of centralised executive power and the loss of consistency in policy-implementation. These aren't insubstantial worries, but likely outcomes from enacting the will of the population. It could be that the abnegation of democracy begins not in Brussels, but closer to home.

    Image by Rupert Ganzer. CC licenced. 

  • Occupy movement

    ‘Occupy’ could do with an occupation

    16 November 2011

    Love or loathe the Occupy movement, one thing is for sure: it represents a decisive break from the political struggles of the past. In fact, it mirrors the economic malaise that has gripped many Western economies in the past two decades – deindustrialisation.

    They have gathered in cities across the world, calling for social justice and curbs on high finance, but one thing marks this latest wave of protests out as different from previous political movements – and it’s not for the good.

    Hailed as decentralised, lacking leaders, and therefore potentially authoritarian control, much has been made of the Occupy movement’s autonomy, as well as its resultant difficulty in coming up with a political programme. But one of the most striking aspects of this new protest movement, one that has had scant attention paid to it, is its total absence of an orientation toward industry. 

    Wags have labelled Spain’s indignados ‘dog-flutes’ after their propensity for animal and musical instrument ownership and, indeed, there appears to be a fair smattering of hippies in every Occupy protest, but, then again, every left protest since the 1960s has had a hippy component.  What is different today is the complete absence of a connection to the sphere of production, the place where, despite decades of theorising about consumer society, the real battles over the future of society take place.

    In this, the protests mirror major political shifts over the last three decades, primarily the financialisation of the economy and retreat from production. The primary form of struggle was the withdrawal of labour: the strike. Even when occupations took place, they were generally workplace occupations and often involved fighting the closures and job losses – fighting against what one might call a strike on the part of capital.

    Labouring under an illusion 

    Why, precisely, is labour missing from the picture? To be sure, unions have been broadly supportive and share many of the protestors’ concerns, but how can you have a battle between capital and labour if actual labour is not in the picture? The short answer is: you can’t. The longer one, well, perhaps in their disconnection from past forms of struggle, the protests couldn’t be any other way in a society that pays almost no attention to productive activity.

    Strikes are obviously economic in nature, the objective being to wrest better pay and conditions from employers, but even occupations have, until now, often had a direct link to industry. Even at their weakest, such as the occupations of Visteon, Prisme and, in Ireland, Waterford Crystal in 2009, the demands were economic, if often meekly so (typically seeking better redundancy packages). At Prisme, a packaging firm, workers planned to run the business without the bosses, though few press reports followed-up on how the co-operative enterprise has been doing since. By contrast, the new occupations are merely occupying space.

    Back at St Paul’s, and elsewhere around the globe where the Occupy movement has set up camp, few doubt the protestors’ noble intentions – even the pages of the Financial Times and Economist have voiced muted support. But even if one thinks the protestors’ complaints are entirely legitimate (and, frankly, they’re both too inchoate and incoherent to really qualify as a systematic critique), the fact remains that in focussing on finance and ‘fairness’ rather than industry and economics, the scope for meaningful change is close to nil.

    This shift is by no means restricted to the protestors, though. The loss of faith in productive economic activity is obvious from the top to the bottom of society. Earlier this year, Prince William and his bride left the royal wedding in style, driving a classic British car: his father's Aston Martin DB6. Undeniably a beautiful piece of engineering, the choice nonetheless revealed the nostalgic character of the British monarchy and, more significantly, pointed to the sad decline of Britain's engineering. One might argue that the monarchy itself is an exercise in nostalgia. Certainly it is an anachronism, but whether it is a brake on genuine democracy or the glue that holds British society together is not the concern here. The loss of interest in British manufacturing is.

    Britsh manufacturing is by no means dead and cars are not necessarily the ne plus ultra of production, but despite promises to “rebalance” the economy, little has been done to encourage manufacturing. 

    Faith-based economics

    Today it is virtually an article of faith that western countries, such as the United States and Britain, with their high wages and standards of living cannot compete with China, but there is evidence that this is not true. Unfortunately, to argue for greater industrial development leaves one open to charges of naiveté or worse, from left and right alike. The left, having abandoned many of its objectives – and its old constituency – complains about ‘addiction to growth’, while the right performs similar intellectual acrobatics to defend the worst kinds of rent-seeking and areas of high finance as economically unproductive as any public sector job.

    Both have been seduced by what should by now now be entirely discredited theories of post-material economics and both suffer from an aversion to investment in material work. Springing, as they do, from the equally “post-material” university classroom and business boardroom, the protestors and the protested have more in common with each other than either side would care to admit. 

    When Jean Baudrillard wrote, “GNPs merely recount a numerical, statistical growth, void of meaning – an inflation of accounting signs incapable of providing a fantasy for the collective will,” he could scarcely have imagined that bosses bored with running costly factories were his natural constituency. This is not to say finance is an unnecessary component of economic activity, serving as it does the purpose of channeling capital around and managing risk, but it represents too narrow and too unproductive a base to build a strong economy on. In refusing to get to grips with the need for serious capital investment in productive activity, both the protestors and the financiers are as decadent as each other.

    The right claims British manufacturing was destroyed by unions run rampant, the left says it was dealt death blows by the Thatcher government of the 1980s. Either way, few today are willing to stand up for manufacturing, seeing its decline and move to low wage economies as having been inevitable, if sped along by the bogeyman of choice. While it is true that Chinese industrial output is the economic engine driving the world, it is very far from being the only significant producer of manufactured goods. Germany lost its status as the world’s largest exporter by value only last year.

    Fixing the economy is not as simple as just “making stuff and flogging it” and the fantasy that every country in the world can simultaneously export their way out of recession is one that takes no account of the need for someone to buy the exported goods and services.

    Italy’s travails are now well known: a debt-to-GDP ratio of 110 to 120 percent and low growth despite its significant industrial base. Nevertheless, getting back to the business of work would be a good start.

    If only someone on either side of the barricades would notice.

    Image by Andy Miah. CC licenced.  

  • Worst-case scenario

    Preparing Ireland for a post-euro economy

    14 November 2011

    In advance of an online debate, economist Brian M. Lucey asks what would happen if Ireland was forced out of the single currency?

    With each passing week it becomes increasingly clear that under present arrangements the euro cannot continue. We have persistently seen political dithering of the worst kind, with the resulting policy vacuum being taken up by the European Central bank (ECB).

    Although one can criticise the ECB for many of its activities (not least the bewildering refusal to contemplate the other side of the fence in relation to Anglo Irish Bank, the bank that toppled Ireland's economy) it is to its credit that it has at least stepped into the breach. 

    However, of all of the European institutions it is probably the least democratic – as is the nature of independent central banks. Every ECB action, no matter how well-meaning, further undermines the democratic legitimacy of the euro. Trust in the ECB has declined and will continue to do so.  In any case, ECB intervention in bond markets has at best only a temporary effect, and it is ultimately up to governments, at both national and European level, to implement policies that will restore fiscal discipline. 

    The action in recent weeks has focused on Italy. Previously, countries that have found themselves locked out of the financing markets have been small, and therefore their problems were sustainable, non-systemic and manageable. Not this time. Italy is simultaneously too big to fail and too big to save. Italian public debt is the third-largest, in absolute terms, in the world:  it has to refinance  €200 billion in the next year. Its GDP is the eighth largest in the world. And yet we have now seen that Italy is, in effect, locked out of the bond markets, at least for anything approaching sensible rates.

    We also see this week that, despite there being no formal mechanism for doing so, it has been suggested by leading European officials and politicians that countries can exit the eurozone. It is highly probable that an exit by any country would lead to a cascade, resulting in the effective breakup of the euro. What then for Ireland?

    Plans for all possibilities

    The first thing that must be said is that hopefully the government has a plan. After all, governments should plan for all eventualities. Planning to deal with an eventuality is not the same as willing it to happen and failure to plan can be catastrophic. Sadly, history suggests a coherent, competent and analytically sound plan is not likely to be found in the county's department of finance.

    Secondly, in the event of the euro breaking up, which may be as a result of the cascade outlined above or perhaps due to the German political system not being able to persuade itself or its constituents of the need to foot the bill, there will be significant winners and losers in Ireland. 

    The first decision that would have been made by the government would be whether or not they would allow a freely-floating currency (which would almost certainly depreciate significantly and immediately), or to put in place some form of managed float. While depreciation would be attractive, in that it would be a boost to exports and therefore assist in putting the country back on a growth path, it would also result in imports becoming more expensive. A third of Irish imports come from the United Kingdom, and in all likelihood the new Irish pound would be weaker than sterling. It would also likely be weaker than the dollar, which given the country's extreme dependence on imported oil would result in significant increases in the price of petroleum based products.  

    All of these would rise in price, bringing inflation and penalising both businesses and consumers. 

    The country would also have to very quickly move to achieve a surplus instead of a primary deficit in government finances. This would be necessary in order to pay down the accumulated national debt. When you consider the pain the country is going through in order to reduce its deficit to three percent over four years it is hard to imagine the wrenching dislocation that would be required to achieve a primary surplus over the span of just a couple of years. And yet, that is precisely what would be required. 

    Ireland would have to offer significantly higher rates on its debt to potential investors than is the case even now, not least because they would almost certainly be facing into a much more inflationary environment. Bond yields (see here and here for example) are in large part driven by fundamental economic factors.

    Losing money

    External euro-denominated liabilities would also create losers. External in this context means outside of Ireland. Mortgages, bank loans, any liabilities within Ireland would be converted to the new pound. It is the liabilities in euros to institutions based outside Ireland that would be messy. The most likely option would be that these would be denominated into the currency of the country where they are located. Thus a loan taken out in Germany would be converted into Deutschmarks, which would result in a very significant increase in these liabilities. 

    Conversely for multinationals with money on deposit in Ireland, and this amounts to billions of euros, any hint that these would likely be converted into a weaker currency would result in their being withdrawn. This in turn would exacerbate the existing credit crunch. The only feasible solution would be harsh exchange controls and a degree of financial repression for a time – hardly something that will be popular with either voters or business.

    Another possible area of concern is the country's banks' dependence on ECB funding, which although declining, remains high. Absent the ECB, the Central Bank of Ireland would have to step into the liquidity breach, further exacerbating inflationary fears. On the positive side it would be much easier to restructure the outstanding payments due on Anglo Irish Bank promissory notes.

    It is debatable whether or not Ireland should have joined the euro. At the time I was in favour, more from the perspective ot political economy than pure economics. I felt at the time that on balance European politicians were more likely to behave in an economically sensible manner than Irish politicians, and that the requirement for fiscal discipline as part of a monetary union would be useful for Ireland.

    Unfortunately this faith was misplaced on both sides.

    Brian M. Lucey will be discussing “Planning for a post Euro Economy” in an online debate Wednesday November 15 at 11.30AM (12.30CET).  He blogs at BrianMLucey.wordpress.com and writes a fortnightly column for the Irish Examiner newspaper.

    Image by MrB-MMX. CC licenced.

  • Economic integration

    A how many speeds Europe?

    14 November 2011

    As the EU flounders in the face of reality, another non-solution to the eurozone's woes is being proposed: more control, less democracy and a long slump. 

    And so the prospect of a two-tier Europe is upon us – at least that's what's being whispered in Brussels, Paris and Berlin.

    In truth there is already a two-tier Europe. A three-tier one, in fact. The inner core is the eurozone. Around this are the non-eurozone states, though these fall into the distinct two categories: refuseniks such as Britain and not-yet-niks like Poland. The third, outer tier consists of Romania and Bulgaria, whose citizens are not allowed to freely migrate to every other EU state.

    If you wanted to, you might even call the Germanic economic core of Europe a tier, so how many is that, then? Four tiers? What about France, which is neither in relatively good shape like Germany, not is it on the brink of bankruptcy as Greece is. Five? What about Denmark? Is it in or out of the Schengen free-travel arrangement? Six?

    The truth is that the European Union is about as united as a conference of anarchists.

    Anyone who has been paying attention to European affairs in the last decade will have heard it all before. Having rejected the Lisbon treaty in 2008, the Irish electorate were threatened, by their own political leaders – and by French president Nicolas Sarkozy – with expulsion to the outer fringes of a "two-tier Europe", the actual phrase used at the time. Whether the prospect of banishment to Euro-Siberia was the reason Irish voters changed their minds a year later, we will never know. Equally likely is that they, as promised, voted "yes for jobs". (For the record, Irish unemployment now stands at 14.4 per cent, the highest it has been since 1994.)

    From a purely technocratic point of view EU leaders could be forgiven for wanting to confine the damaged economies of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece and even Belgium to the sin-bin. Hell, they'd probably want to sling Britain in too, just for being such a damn nuisance. Clearly British Labour party MP Chris Bryant is worried about just this. Writing in the Independent of London, Mr Bryant fears his country will become one of "the banlieues of Europe."

    He needn't worry. Purgatory isn't what's on offer this time. Instead the proposal is for tighter integration of the eurozone economies, with non-participants forming the outer core, which sounds a lot like what we've already got. Well, yes and no. The plan is, in the words of Mr Sarkozy, for Europe to have two gears, both forward.

    "In the end, clearly, there will be two European gears," he said: "one gear toward more integration in the eurozone and a gear that is more confederal in the European Union."

    A currency union of countries that share neither a division of labour nor a fiscal policy was never going to hold together well in times of crisis, but all that is on the table now is the creation of a unified fiscal policy. This is what is really meant by tighter integration: budgets being decided not by elected national governments, but by a supra-national eurozone body. Whether or not it is called a finance ministry, that is precisely what it would, in essence, be.

    One of the great lies of the eurocrisis is that it simply is the fault of "peripheral" economies such as Greece, Italy and Spain, where feckless "southerners" borrowed recklessly while stout German burghers worked hard and saved. Germans did save, but this child-like morality tale is not even half of the picture. In fact, the eurocrisis is a result of lopsided Keynesian pump-priming. Although many European economies could do with a significant amount of systematic capital investment in industry right now – call it stimulus if you must, though that term has become too elastic to be of much use in recent years – the boom in the eurozone was one giant stimulus package, except it favoured Germany. Here's how it worked: domestic demand and spending was kept low with tight controls on wages and the euro put an end to inconvenient exchange rates. At the same time, German banks lent heavily to other eurozone members. These member states then used the borrowed money to purchase goods and services exported by Germany, whose economy was, due to low domestic demand, geared-up entirely for export. The result? Germany enjoyed a lengthy industrial boom.

    In order to get out of the mess we are now in, what is being proposed is an effective continuation of the absence of industrial policy in much of Europe. Germany will keep exporting, though growth will be significantly slower as much of rest of Europe won't be buying, while the eurozone's troubled economies will see not a stimulus package, but a tranquiliser package that will further slow their economies. This shot in the arm –  shot of economic benzodiazepine, that is –  will be administered by continuing to take money out of people's pockets, and therefore the national economies, by hiking taxes and cutting public services. 

    For a real eurozone finance ministry, though, there will have to be a new EU treaty, and that is not going to happen. Regardless of anyone's view on it, the chances of getting the Irish public to sign-up to a new EU treaty – any EU treaty – are, frankly, nil. Given that Ireland's constitution mandates a referendum on any changes to it, it is clear what this means for the plans of Ms Merkel and Mr Sarkozy: the European jalopy may have two gears, neither of them reverse, but in the shape of Ireland it does at least have a brake pedal.

    As a result, any changes will have to come by the back-door and will be slow and piecemeal in nature, which amounts to a continuation of how the EU has already responded to the crisis. Talk of a break-up of the euro, or even of the EU itself, is over-blown. In reality, Europe is looking at a decade of compromise, slow decline in its prestige and economic slump.

    Image by OpenDemocracy. CC licenced. 

  • Journalism and the eurocrisis

    All eyes on Europe

    11 November 2011

    At least the eurocrisis means –  for once – the EU isn’t dull. Let’s make the most of this opportunity to start taking it seriously.

    Having reported on the EU for quite a few years it is with some interest that I have been following the sudden explosion in coverage of matters European. Back in 2006, writing about breaches of EU directives on sewage processing and the Irish national standards agency's reluctance to accept European Technical Approval status for building products seemed not only unglamorous, but downright geeky. Even rather more interesting subjects, such as the conflicting signals the EU has sent out on the issue of privacy online, were hardly the stuff headlines are made of. Like much of what journalists report daily, these were small issues, infinitesimally small when set against the eurocrisis, so it's hardly surprising that my first ever EU-related page one lead was on finance and not whether dwellings in rural Ireland are processing faeces with appropriate regard to groundwater. 

    Of course, the eurocrisis is the kind of excitement none of us would wish on anyone.

    I do wonder though, should the EU and ECB manage to put all the banks (and national economies) back together again, if we will once again drift off into our euro-slumber, confining the EU to tales of straight bananas, features about how tales of straight bananas are lies and, of course, finance pieces that most of us mere mortals don't read and would struggle to understand at any rate.

    Perhaps not though. Perhaps this crisis shaking the eurozone and the very EU itself is enough to make us fundamentally reassess our relationship with Europe. Obviously this is already happening in politics. In Britain, as elsewhere in Europe, the eurosceptic right is getting louder. Less well reported is the fact that the equally eurosceptic left is getting bolder too, certainly in Ireland where I am based. But just as there is more to politics than parliaments, there is more to Europe than the pronouncements of politicians.

    As someone who considers himself a eurocritic at the least – I'm in favour of freedom of movement, but less enamoured of unelected commissioners handing down edicts from on-high – I think the only potentially positive thing that can come out of the eurocrisis is that we might read and hear about the EU's machinations a bit more. At times it can be hard to avoid the sneaking suspicion that the EU is tedious by design, that boring electorates (and journalists) into submission is a tactical measure undertaken by EU elites who float above us without much in the way of democratic legitimacy. For now, though, the EU is anything but boring, so those on all sides of the debate would do well to seize the day and get talking.

    Yesterday the Guardian's Comment is Free section published excerpts from a new book by Jürgen Habermas. The German philosopher is worried about a democratic deficit in the new, all-singing, all-dancing (but no-voting) technocratic EU. Tempting as it is to lay at least some of the blame for this at the door of thinkers like Mr Habermas who have long argued for tighter European integration, it is at least heartening that voices whose criticism of Europe does not come draped in nostalgia are beginning to be heard.  

    Nevertheless, the truth is eurosceptics have been right about one thing all along: love it or loathe it, the EU has always been important, creating and amending as it does so much of national law in member states, setting basic standards for goods and services and, most importantly of all, issuing a currency for seventeen of those states.

    Speaking for myself, I'm unlikely to ever become a euro cheerleader. I see too much bureaucracy and disregard – contempt even – for the will of the people, and I have yet to be convinced there is such a thing as a European public. If there is to ever be such a thing, if indeed it would be desirable, we all need to start taking the EU more seriously. Even when it is boring.

    Image by Karen Eliot. CC licenced. 

  • Greek referendum

    European press reaction: Papandreou’s referendum and the euro crisis

    03 November 2011

    This article was commissioned by the Guardian for Comment is Free, November 2nd.

    Scanning the headlines of today's European press, optimism isn't a word that comes to mind. "Madness", "chaos", "fear", "collapse" feature heavily. Only a few days after the Brussels summit buoyed up the world's stock markets, the eurozone crisis has begun to resemble the giant planet in Lars Von Trier's Melancholia, skirting past the Earth in Wagnerian splendour, and now fatally moving back into view. Has Greek PM George Papandreou locked us into a eurozone dance of death? Last week's jubilant tone is today replaced by a bitter note. Leading the charge is French daily Le Figaro.

    Read full article...

  • INTERVIEW

    Jean Ziegler: Brussels is unspeakably hypocritical

    25 October 2011

    Vice-president of the UN Human Rights Council Advisory Committee, Jean Ziegler has just published Destruction massive. Géopolitique de la faim (“Mass Destruction: the Geopolitics of Hunger” published in France by Seuil). In this essay, the Swiss socialogist recounts his experience as the  United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food from 2000 to 2008, and analyses the reasons for the current global death toll from malnutrition, which kills 36 million people every year.

    Why are people still dying of hunger?

    There are five major reasons: first and foremost, financial speculation in in raw materials for food, which have resulted in soaring prices in recent years and made it almost impossible for aid agencies like the World Food Programme (WFP) to fulfill the needs of malnourished populations. Then we have bio-fuels, which have diverted farmland and crops from food production. Thirdly, there is the problem of external debt, which has a stranglehold over the poorest countries and prevents them from investing in subsistence agriculture. Then there is the dumping of agricultural surpluses, which has resulted in the sale of fruit and poultry from countries like France, Greece, Portugal and Germany etc. on markets in places like Dakar and Cotonou, at a third or half the cost of locally produced African products. Finally, there is the monopolisation of land by investment funds and major multinationals, who drive out local farmers to cultivate products that are exclusively destined for western markets.

    Is the EU responsible?

    It is 100% responsible for agricultural dumping, which is actively supported by France. In 2005, on the occasion of WTO talks in Hong Kong, the Secretary General of the WTO, Pascal Lamy, proposed to progressively eliminate export subsidies over a five-year period. And this proposal met with vigorous opposition from France, which is in favour of sustaining export subsidies, notably because of the political influence of agricultural chambers of commerce. And so the dumping has continued in Africa, which is under populated even though it has an extraordinary peasant class… but this class has been decimated because farmers are unable to sell their produce.

    Has the EU played a role in the drive to combat hunger worldwide?

    The current European Commission is made up of fully fledged mercenaries in the service of monster corporations in the agri-food business. The power of lobbies in Brussels is incredible. If they wanted to do it they could put an end to agricultural dumping tomorrow.

    Brussels is also unspeakably hypocritical: while Europe presents itself as a supporter of global justice and development, the 87 countries of the ACP [the African, Carribean and Pacific Group of states, most of which are former European colonies] are maintained in unacceptably inferior conditions.

    The fact that we oblige them to accept investment deals that demand equal terms for local companies and western multinationals beggars belief.

    The European Commission says to these countries: "Are you contesting our policy of agricultural and export subsidies? Okay, we are going to reconsider our development aid operations." It is worse than colonialism: it is external facism. Human rights stop at the borders of Europe; thereafter we are faced with a cannibal order that privileges violence and the law of the jungle.

    What are the causes of the current crisis in Europe?

    The crisis has been caused by enormous debts, that have accumulated in the course of two successive bank bailouts. First in 2008 and now in 2011, governments have recapitalised banks with public money that they do not have, and so they have been obliged to take out loans and cut their budgets. As a result, the purchasing power of workers has declined, and so too has the quality of social services. And the very same states are incapable of imposing risk management standards on their banks! Nothing has changed in this field since 2008.

    What are the solutions?

    Two things will have to be done: first the banks will have to be dismantled, so that there is a clear separation between "investment" and "deposit" branches with a ban on a individual institutions being involved in both sectors. Then the banks will have to be nationalised. This is not an ideological issue – after all, De Gaulle nationalised banking in the postwar years. Today, the inability of western political leaders to impose decisions and rulings on banking oligarchies in the name of the public good is unbelievable.

    What do you think of the “indignados” movment?

    We are close to a rebellion of consciousness: on Saturday [15 October], the “indignados” all over the world are going to demonstrate. At the same time it is hard to say where all of this is leading. Revolutionary processes in history are always highly mysterious, and we are unable to anticipate them. As the Spanish poet Antonio Machado put it, "Caminante no hay camino, se hace camino al andar." Collective consciousness knows what it does not want: we do not want a world ruled by a cannibal order, where human beings are directly responsible for the massacre through starvation of 35 million people a year. And we should not be afraid of not being able to make an impact: democracy and mulitlateral diplomacy are not powerless.

    Human rights, press freedom, the mobilisation of the people, elections, general strikes… We have weapons that we can use to fight the mechanisms of hunger. The markets are subject ot the rule of law: it is possible to introduce an outright ban on speculation in foodstuffs overnight. We have the power to impose prohibitive taxes on imported bio-ethanol. European agriculture ministers can demand an end to agricultural dumping. The finance ministers in countries that are members of the IMF could effectively vote to write off loans to the most indebted countries.

    photo and interview by Gian Paolo Accardo

  • INTERVIEW

    Paolo Rumiz: “The heart of Europe beats in the East”

    05 August 2011

    For the author of Aux frontières de l’Europe (“At the Frontiers of Europe”) only in few former communist countries and along the external border of the EU can one still encounter the soul of the Old Continent.

    How did you get the idea of travelling extensively along the eastern border of the European Union?

    I wanted a border that really still was one. As I come from Trieste, I consider myself a son of the border. I was born the same day that the border was drawn around Trieste, on December 20, 1947. This boundary was dismantled exactly sixty years later to the day [when several countries of eastern Europe entered the Schengen area], which coincides, of course, with my sixtieth birthday. That evening my Polish partner [photographer Monika Bulaja] and I looked at each other, and we said: “After wanting this border gone for sixty years, how are we going to handle it, now that it’s no longer there?” It was a wonderful invitation to travel: where has that sense of mystery, which was always wrapped up with the border, gone off to? That day, a little tipsy, a little euphoric, as we were taking down the old Yugoslav border barrier in the middle of a forest in the valley of Rosandra, where you can find the last Italian inn before Yugoslavia, I decided that I would go looking for that real frontier: a place where I would still find genuine border guards.

    Did you find them?

    And how! Can you imagine? If I had made this trip twenty-five years ago, once I had crossed back into Slovenia I would never have had to show my passport, because I would have been inside the zone of the Warsaw Pact and the former USSR. This time, however, the continual coming and going from the Schengen area and the European Union (EU) meant that I found myself – especially between Norway and Russia and between Latvia and Russia – facing frontiers of an incredible rigidity, far tougher than they were before the Wall fell. I wanted to see what there was behind this barrier, this limit. One quickly grasps that there is no difference between one side of the border and the other, despite these absurd barriers, and that in fact the line of the EU frontier runs along a series of trans-boundary regions with wonderful names, like Courland [Lithuania] or Bothnia [Scandinavia] or Dobrudja [Romania / Bulgaria], which existed before the great nationalist fever of the nineteenth century. These are the names and regions that make up the true heart of the continent.

    The geographical centre of Europe, one hears, is somewhere in western Ukraine...

    Europe has several centres. One is in Lithuania, one in the Carpathians, one in Poland. It depends on how we measure Europe. What is certain is that Europe is higher than it is wide. The centre of Europe right now is nothing more than a pale imitation of the West, even if strong traces of the East are found in it. This mixture of the Slavic and Judaism, which is the profound soul of Europe, I have found only in these border regions. This is where the heart of Europe beats for me, the heart I had heard of and that I was looking for: a certain maternal femininity, great rivers…. It was in Russia, Ukraine, Poland where I found them.

    Your story carries an almost immoderate love for the Slavic spirit and the way of life of the people you met. And a kind of disgust towards certain aspects of western Europe. What is the problem of western Europe?

    It’s a world that’s more homogeneous, more fake, more celluloid, where time hurries faster every day and burns up in a corrida of e-mails and text messages, where we’ve lost contact with the earth – “zemljia” in Russian. It’s a word that, with “voda”, or water, has followed me throughout my career.

    In your book you praise the authenticity of the inhabitants of these border regions. Yet many of them have one wish – to live in western Europe or, at least, to adopt the lifestyle.

    That can’t be forgotten, of course. Without telling them that they’re sticking a finger in their own eye, however, we can remind them that not everything is rosy on this side of the border. Older people are aware of it: they realise that the solidarity that once marked relations among people is no longer there among the Westernised youth.

    You often mention the “Slavic soul” in your book. How would you define it?

    Slavs are aware that they are not the brains of the continent, but of being, somewhat, its guts. They let their instincts come to the surface. While this may lead to an incredible aggressiveness, in other situations it gives rise to an unforgettable tenderness. In my book I write of a scene in Minsk, where a group of young women come up to a musician playing an accordion and tell him: “Come on, Igor, make us cry!” A Westerner would never have done it. He would have needed a song to anesthetise that life that’s going by too fast, too senselessly. It’s what I like about the Slavs – this sharing of the shadowy part of their lives, of the melancholia.

    Has the accession of ten former communist countries to the EU changed Europe?

    Yes, because they’ve brought an infusion of dramatic nationalism. From this point of view, the Poles have been a disaster. This feeling that they’re a martyr people who stood up to the Communist moloch. They’ve rediscovered nationalism after the end of nationalism. In Poland it’s pathological. It’s a world centred on itself. What happened with the plane that crashed carrying President Lech Kaczynski and all the other leaders [which went down in Smolensk in April 2010] is a good example: there was no question of the Russians taking them for fools!

    In your book you seem to make complaints against Europe and its institutions....

    I blame Europe and Italy for being asleep, for not being aware of the nationalist and centrifugal forces that are tugging it apart. We have not remembered the lesson from the Balkans: it’s enough simply to identify an enemy to a people short of reference points for that people to take it on as truth. Today, a ruling class facing collapse that would like to transform a political standoff into an ethnic standoff would have no trouble doing so. We no longer have the anti-fascist antibodies, but nor do we have the antibodies of criticism, either. From this point of view, Italy – but Belgium too – are risk areas. One finds there an exasperated regionalist victimisation. It’s a form of resentment of the periphery towards the centre.

    Interview by Gian Paolo Accardo